Integrated use of the CA-Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation: Application in the Upper Zambezi Basin, southern Africa

Integrated use of the CA-Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation: Application in the Upper Zambezi Basin, southern Africa | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Integrated use of the CA-Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation: Application in the Upper Zambezi Basin, southern Africa Henry M. Zimba, Kawawa E. Banda, Stephen Mbewe, Imasiku A. Nyambe This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365993/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study aims to demonstrate the potential of assessing future land cover degradation status by combining the forecasting capabilities of the Cellular-Automata-Markov chain (CA-Markov) models in Idris Selva with the land cover degradation (LCD) model in the Trends.Earth module. The study focuses on the upper Zambezi Basin (UZB) in southern Africa, which is one of the regions with high rates of land degradation globally. Landsat satellite imagery is utilised to generate historical (1993–2023) land cover and land use (LCLU) maps for the UZB, while the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) global LCLU maps are obtained from the Trends.Earth module. The CA-Markov chain model is employed to predict future LCLU changes between 2023 and 2043. The LCD model in the Trends.Earth module in QGIS 3.34 is then used to assess the historical and forecasted land cover degradation status. The findings reveal that land cover degradation maps produced from local LCLU classifications provide more detailed information compared to those produced from the ESA CCI global LCLU product. Between 2023 and 2043, the UZB is predicted to experience a net reduction of approximately 3.2 million hectares of forest cover, with an average annual reduction rate of -0.13%. In terms of land cover degradation, the UZB is forecasted to remain generally stable, with 87% and 96% of the total land cover area expected to be stable during the periods 2023–2033 and 2033–2043, respectively, relative to the base years 2023 and 2033. Reduction in forest cover due to the expansion of grassland, human settlements, and cropland is projected to drive land cover degradation, while improvements in forest cover are anticipated through the conversion of grassland and cropland into forested areas. By leveraging the predictive power of the CA-Markov model and the capabilities of the LCD model, as evidenced in this study, valuable information can be effectively obtained for monitoring land cover degradation. This information can then be used to implement targeted interventions that align with the objective of realising the United Nations' land degradation neutral world target by 2030. CA-Markov model Land cover and land use Land cover degradation Land cover degradation model Trends.Earth module Upper Zambezi Basin Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 28 May, 2024 Reviews received at journal 28 May, 2024 Reviews received at journal 27 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 May, 2024 Reviews received at journal 26 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 May, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 07 May, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 04 May, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 04 May, 2024 First submitted to journal 03 May, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4365993","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":300237661,"identity":"c0fd7f84-570c-403e-8a32-1791e7d4958b","order_by":0,"name":"Henry M. Zimba","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwglAWQwH2BgbICJHyBKC1sCSVpADB4D4rSYs/ce+8zzxyLanP3MN4mfO2zkGNgPH2DmOYNbi2XPueTZPDwSuTt7crdJ9p5JM2bgSUtg5rmBx2E3coyZeSQkcjccyN0mwdt2OLFBgseAmecDHi333wC1GAC1nH/zTPIvUVpu8AC1JAC13Mhhk0bYgs9hZ3KMGeccAPplxjNja9m2NGM2oF8OzsHjfYPjZ4wZ3vypy93On/zw5ts2Gzl+9sMHH7w5hlsLCDDxQGgWCRDJxoA3ViCA8QeEZsbj51EwCkbBKBjJAACHmlB67v/3eAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Zambia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Henry","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Zimba","suffix":""},{"id":300237663,"identity":"2fc1671e-67bf-4064-bf4a-7d16f20f31e6","order_by":1,"name":"Kawawa E. Banda","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Zambia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kawawa","middleName":"E.","lastName":"Banda","suffix":""},{"id":300237665,"identity":"bfed766b-0bb9-47ca-843f-b0fb8296e718","order_by":2,"name":"Stephen Mbewe","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Zambia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stephen","middleName":"","lastName":"Mbewe","suffix":""},{"id":300237666,"identity":"acfbd793-8306-4029-9697-7a91f740a8d2","order_by":3,"name":"Imasiku A. Nyambe","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Zambia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Imasiku","middleName":"A.","lastName":"Nyambe","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-03 21:38:32","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365993/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365993/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":56149978,"identity":"87084a2a-18c2-4b24-93c3-7d3705c9fc15","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-09 06:53:53","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1723891,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Zimbaetal2024Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4365993/v1_covered_e20c9131-b588-427d-8da9-27c6537931eb.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Integrated use of the CA-Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation: Application in the Upper Zambezi Basin, southern Africa","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-systems-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ensr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Systems Research](http://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"40068","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/40068/3","title":"Environmental Systems Research","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"CA-Markov model, Land cover and land use, Land cover degradation, Land cover degradation model, Trends.Earth module, Upper Zambezi Basin","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365993/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365993/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study aims to demonstrate the potential of assessing future land cover degradation status by combining the forecasting capabilities of the Cellular-Automata-Markov chain (CA-Markov) models in Idris Selva with the land cover degradation (LCD) model in the Trends.Earth module. The study focuses on the upper Zambezi Basin (UZB) in southern Africa, which is one of the regions with high rates of land degradation globally. Landsat satellite imagery is utilised to generate historical (1993\u0026ndash;2023) land cover and land use (LCLU) maps for the UZB, while the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) global LCLU maps are obtained from the Trends.Earth module. The CA-Markov chain model is employed to predict future LCLU changes between 2023 and 2043. The LCD model in the Trends.Earth module in QGIS 3.34 is then used to assess the historical and forecasted land cover degradation status. The findings reveal that land cover degradation maps produced from local LCLU classifications provide more detailed information compared to those produced from the ESA CCI global LCLU product. Between 2023 and 2043, the UZB is predicted to experience a net reduction of approximately 3.2\u0026nbsp;million hectares of forest cover, with an average annual reduction rate of -0.13%. In terms of land cover degradation, the UZB is forecasted to remain generally stable, with 87% and 96% of the total land cover area expected to be stable during the periods 2023\u0026ndash;2033 and 2033\u0026ndash;2043, respectively, relative to the base years 2023 and 2033. Reduction in forest cover due to the expansion of grassland, human settlements, and cropland is projected to drive land cover degradation, while improvements in forest cover are anticipated through the conversion of grassland and cropland into forested areas. By leveraging the predictive power of the CA-Markov model and the capabilities of the LCD model, as evidenced in this study, valuable information can be effectively obtained for monitoring land cover degradation. This information can then be used to implement targeted interventions that align with the objective of realising the United Nations' land degradation neutral world target by 2030.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Integrated use of the CA-Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation: Application in the Upper Zambezi Basin, southern Africa","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-05-09 06:52:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365993/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-05-28T10:23:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-05-28T04:30:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-05-28T01:39:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"2881889413031300420834084786357358334","date":"2024-05-28T01:15:29+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"996833115765303231017103552100439860","date":"2024-05-27T00:33:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-05-26T04:44:39+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"274790012241725437182477898141164772976","date":"2024-05-25T21:00:39+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"12477187232405444921270706173124860051","date":"2024-05-23T13:32:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"512829932534025460977904500641559212","date":"2024-05-23T04:58:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-05-08T01:36:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-05-05T02:27:56+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-05-04T07:26:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Systems Research","date":"2024-05-03T21:23:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-systems-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ensr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Systems Research](http://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"40068","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/40068/3","title":"Environmental Systems Research","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c98f1d45-e4f1-492c-a530-516bff934218","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 9th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-06-18T22:13:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-05-09 06:52:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4365993","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4365993","identity":"rs-4365993","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}