Modeling the impacts of climate change on the Arctic

Modeling the impacts of climate change on the Arctic | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Modeling the impacts of climate change on the Arctic Pengjun Zhao, Yunlin Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3757672/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Jul, 2024 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the long-term impacts of climate change on Arctic maritime transport, focusing on Polar Class 7 and 1B Ice Class vessels, which are predominantly used in the region. Using IPCC AR6's SSP1-2.4, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the research analyzes sea ice conditions and navigability from 2023 to 2100. The results show that during 2023–2100, the navigability of 1B ships will increase significantly. The navigable days, without the consideration of sea ice motion, for both types of vessels will be similarly year-round by 2100. Under SSP 5-8.5, PC7 ships will be able to sail the Arctic passages throughout all seasons except for the spring from 2070, while the navigable area of 1B ships shows a high possibility of expanding after 2100. The optimal shipping routes of PC7 ships from 2071 to 2100 are more distributed toward the North Pole with the decrease of sea ice extent. Particularly, after 2071, the Northern Sea Route is feasible for PC7 ships transporting to north European and American countries along the Arctic. These could significantly reshape the patterns of global shipping network and international trade among Asia, Europe, and America. Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Arctic passages climate change the Polar Silk Road navigability maritime transport Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Appendix.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Jul, 2024 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3757672","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":264810705,"identity":"76807f34-6e5a-4334-8fdd-d8e3735b9e05","order_by":0,"name":"Pengjun Zhao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACCRjxgSEBxDQgXgvjDKK1wPQx8xCjxZy99/ALy7Y7DPKzmx8+tt2RltjA3rxNgqHmDk4tlj3n0iwk254xMM45ZmyceyYnsYHnWJkEw7FnOLUY3MgxM5BsO8zALJFgJp3bVpHYIJFjJsHYcBi3lvtvIFrYJNK/SVuCtMi/IaDlBo/xA5AWHqDh0oxtQIdJ8ODXYtmTY8Ygce4wj4RETrFh75k04zaetGKLhGO4tZiznzH+LFF2WE5+RvrGBz93JMv2sx/eeONDDR6HMTCwSQOjhAfMY2wAckGMBJwawFqYP36A8UBaRsEoGAWjYBSgAwAV61CXLIvS+wAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5373-5551","institution":"Peking University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pengjun","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":264810706,"identity":"830ab629-efaa-4ad2-859d-80983c83b91b","order_by":1,"name":"Yunlin Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yunlin","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2023-12-15 08:46:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3757672/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3757672/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7","type":"published","date":"2024-07-30T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":61472844,"identity":"4464829f-7f4e-45f6-83f5-ce24b42ced0a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-31 07:09:14","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1252596,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ModelingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheArcticmaritimetransport.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3757672/v1_covered_65c9e6cd-13b8-498b-a1f9-b9131a1118ce.pdf"},{"id":49162086,"identity":"cdd29b2c-636b-4809-b8b5-a0ed95519c54","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-01-04 06:31:38","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":229037,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Appendix.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3757672/v1/c657edcb603908157c4150fb.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Modeling the impacts of climate change on the Arctic","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Arctic passages, climate change, the Polar Silk Road, navigability, maritime transport","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3757672/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3757672/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines the long-term impacts of climate change on Arctic maritime transport, focusing on Polar Class 7 and 1B Ice Class vessels, which are predominantly used in the region. Using IPCC AR6's SSP1-2.4, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the research analyzes sea ice conditions and navigability from 2023 to 2100. The results show that during 2023\u0026ndash;2100, the navigability of 1B ships will increase significantly. The navigable days, without the consideration of sea ice motion, for both types of vessels will be similarly year-round by 2100. Under SSP 5-8.5, PC7 ships will be able to sail the Arctic passages throughout all seasons except for the spring from 2070, while the navigable area of 1B ships shows a high possibility of expanding after 2100. The optimal shipping routes of PC7 ships from 2071 to 2100 are more distributed toward the North Pole with the decrease of sea ice extent. Particularly, after 2071, the Northern Sea Route is feasible for PC7 ships transporting to north European and American countries along the Arctic. These could significantly reshape the patterns of global shipping network and international trade among Asia, Europe, and America.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Modeling the impacts of climate change on the Arctic","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-01-04 06:31:33","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3757672/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"communications-earth-and-environment","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"commsenv","sideBox":"Learn more about [Communications Earth and Environment](https://www.nature.com/commsenv/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Communications Earth \u0026 Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Communications Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"54904de6-91c0-49b0-b0d5-a7e597424382","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 4th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":27906223,"name":"Scientific community and society/Geography"},{"id":27906224,"name":"Social science/Geography"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-07-31T07:09:08+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-3757672","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7","journal":{"identity":"communications-earth-and-environment","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Communications Earth \u0026 Environment"},"publishedOn":"2024-07-30 04:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"July 30th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-01-04 06:31:33","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-3757672","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-3757672","identity":"rs-3757672","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}