Strengthening Smallholder Adaptive Capacity to Seasonal Climate Variability in Semi-Arid Somaliland

Strengthening Smallholder Adaptive Capacity to Seasonal Climate Variability in Semi-Arid Somaliland | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Strengthening Smallholder Adaptive Capacity to Seasonal Climate Variability in Semi-Arid Somaliland Ahmed Hussein Ismail, Mengistu Mengesha Maja, Abdisa Alemu Tolossa This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9071908/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions face great challenges due to impact of climate variability, particularly erratic rainfall, dry spells, and rising temperatures that undermine agricultural productivity and resilience. This study examines the contribution of Climate Information Services (CIS) to smallholder resilience in Gabiley District, Somaliland. A mixed-methods design that combines climate trend analysis (1993–2023) with household survey (n = 164), alongside key informant interviews and focus group discussion was employed in this study. Annual rainfall exhibited high variability with coefficient of variation (CV) of 42.3%, and some months showed extreme variability (eg., February with a CV of 172.8%). Annual rainfall showed no statistically significant monotonic trend over 1993–2023 (p = 0.32), despite substantial inter-annual variability. whereas minimum temperature increased significantly p = 0.012; Sen’s slope ≈ +0.02 °C yr⁻¹. Seasonal analysis revealed irregular onset dates, frequent dry spells, and unstable growing seasons, which constrain farm-level decision-making. A Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), derived using Principal Component Analysis, captured absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities. Logistic regression analysis identified education, credit access, and extension services as key drivers of CIS uptake. RCI patterns differed between CIS users and non-users, with clearer advantages in absorptive and transformative dimensions among some CIS users. Despite limitations related to the use of cross-sectional data and absence of ground-station validation, the study provides robust evidence that CIS enhances resilience in the vulnerable farming systems. The findings underscore the importance of scaling up inclusive CIS delivery, strengthening institutional coordination, and embedding climate services within national adaptation strategies. Climate Information Services (CIS) rainfall variability Mann–Kendall Somaliland Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) Semi-arid Temperature Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 04 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 04 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 02 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 01 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 23 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 19 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9071908","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":617597781,"identity":"6cd6ab2e-e133-43e7-ad5d-91429eddd850","order_by":0,"name":"Ahmed Hussein Ismail","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgYDZiiD4cCHChCDuYFoLYwPZ5wBMRgJaGGAaQGqNeZtA9EEtPCzM29gLmyrs+dn5z0mwTuvNpq/HajlR8U2nFokm9kKmGe2HU6c2cyXJiG57XjujMOMDYw9Z27jdtVhHgNm3rYDCUCGmYThtmO5DUAtzIxtuLXYQ7TU2duDtCTOOZY7n5AWA2awFmbGDcw8xgYHG2pyNxDSInGYreAwz7nDiTMO8xg+bDh2IHcjUMtBfH7h7z+88TFPGTDE+s8YHP5TU5c77/zhgw9+VODWAgIHkNiHMUQIgjpSFI+CUTAKRsEIAQAj21T8TVI2WwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Hargeisa","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ahmed","middleName":"Hussein","lastName":"Ismail","suffix":""},{"id":617597786,"identity":"76280021-01e3-4b3e-86fb-dcf022ff6275","order_by":1,"name":"Mengistu Mengesha Maja","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Haramaya University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mengistu","middleName":"Mengesha","lastName":"Maja","suffix":""},{"id":617597788,"identity":"5a0e0b8a-01f5-4a4a-b3fc-d9787780323f","order_by":2,"name":"Abdisa Alemu Tolossa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Haramaya University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdisa","middleName":"Alemu","lastName":"Tolossa","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-09 10:55:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9071908/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9071908/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106403357,"identity":"991ecd71-e814-4e9f-94c9-3ab700333a09","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:14:08","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":777575,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DSUSManuscriptAhmedHusseinIsmail95315648R1v1.2..pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9071908/v1_covered_9717da12-68ca-4efd-8158-5b1964aebdc6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Strengthening Smallholder Adaptive Capacity to Seasonal Climate Variability in Semi-Arid Somaliland","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate Information Services (CIS), rainfall variability, Mann–Kendall; Somaliland; Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), Semi-arid, Temperature","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9071908/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9071908/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSmallholder farmers in semi-arid regions face great challenges due to impact of climate variability, particularly erratic rainfall, dry spells, and rising temperatures that undermine agricultural productivity and resilience. 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