An introductory tutorial on Bayesian inference using a simple pedagogical tool

This tutorial on Bayesian inference targets psychological researchers who are trained in the null hypothesis testing approach and use of SPSS software. There a number ofexcellent quality tutorials on Bayesian inference, but their problem is that, they assume mathematical knowledge that most psychological researchers do not possess. Thistutorial starts from the idea that Bayesian inference is not more difficult than the traditional approach, but before being introduced to probability theory notation is necessary for the newcomer to understand simple probability principles, which could be explained without mathematical formulas or probability notation. For this purpose in this tutorial I use a simple tool-the parameter-data table-to explain how probability theory can easily be used to make inferences in research. Then I compare the Bayesian and the null hypothesis testing approach using the same tool. Only after having introduced these principles I show the formulas and notations and explain how they relate to the parameter-data table. It is to be expected that this tutorial will increase the use of Bayesian inference by psychological researchers. Moreover, Bayesian researchers may use this tutorial to teach Bayesian inference to undergraduate or postgraduate students.