Patterns and timing of emergence of climate signals in Antarctic sea ice and ecosystems

Patterns and timing of emergence of climate signals in Antarctic sea ice and ecosystems | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Patterns and timing of emergence of climate signals in Antarctic sea ice and ecosystems Kristen Krumhardt, Laura Landrum, Bilgecan Sen, Alice DuVivier, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014099/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 13 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Antarctic sea ice is projected to decline with continued global climate change, potentially impacting Antarctic ecosystems on multiple levels. We use a suite of models to show that substantial regional and seasonal differences exist in when and how climate change patterns manifest in Antarctic sea ice, phytoplankton, krill, fish, and penguins. Despite the sea ice-controlled ecosystem around Antarctica, climate-driven changes in fish and penguins tend to emerge from historic variability earlier than sea ice and lower trophic levels. Changes are both negative and positive and highly seasonal; for example, krill growth increases in the spring, but decreases in the summer in many regions. The earliest climate signals emerge in Eastern Antarctic regions, while the Ross Sea remains a refuge from climate change farther into the 21st century. In the coming decades, summer sea ice loss in the Weddell Sea could improve the region for fish and krill growth, while remaining habitable for Emperor penguins. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biooceanography Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecological modelling Antarctic ecosystems Time of Emergence Sea ice climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 13 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7014099","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":499344863,"identity":"363cd556-b1b2-4276-b196-502939bd3e7f","order_by":0,"name":"Kristen 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