Analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of Climate Extreme Indices under CMIP6 Climate Model over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Northwestern Ethiopia

Analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of Climate Extreme Indices under CMIP6 Climate Model over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Northwestern Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of Climate Extreme Indices under CMIP6 Climate Model over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Northwestern Ethiopia Fekadie Bazie Enyew, Dejene Sahlu, Gashaw Bimrew Tarekegn, Addis A. Alaminie This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7114215/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and severity of extreme occurrences worldwide. The study was aimed to analyzing climate extreme indices using the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model under socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Observed and projected CMIP6 precipitation and temperature data were analyzed under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. For this study, power transformation and distribution mapping bias correction methods were applied. This study utilized Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test to assess the trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices. The study also used 15 rainfall and temperature extreme indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The result indicated that INM-CM5-0 and INM-CM4-8 models performed best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Extreme temperature indices revealed that there was a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of cool days (TX10p) and cool nights (TN10p) at (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01) significance level, respectively. The finding also shows there was a positive significant (p < 0.001) increasing trend in warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Additionally, rainfall indices showed there was a significant (p < 0.001) increasing trend in heavy (R10) and very heavy precipitation (R20 and R25) in the study area. Hence, the communities should practice efficient water management practices to adapting the projected increase in heavy and very heavy precipitation events and shift towards more climate-resilient crop varieties. CMIP6 extreme indices Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia Full Text Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Minor revisions 12 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 11 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 16 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 13 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Extreme temperature indices revealed that there was a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of cool days (TX10p) and cool nights (TN10p) at (p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.05 and p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.01) significance level, respectively. The finding also shows there was a positive significant (p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001) increasing trend in warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Additionally, rainfall indices showed there was a significant (p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001) increasing trend in heavy (R10) and very heavy precipitation (R20 and R25) in the study area. 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