Accounting for Embodied Emissions of Chemicals within the European Carbon Border Adjustment Measure

Accounting for Embodied Emissions of Chemicals within the European Carbon Border Adjustment Measure | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis Accounting for Embodied Emissions of Chemicals within the European Carbon Border Adjustment Measure André Bardow, Hannah Minten, Julian Hausweiler, Benedict Probst, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5669037/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Sep, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) implemented by the European Union (EU) aims to avoid carbon leakage and drive the transition towards net-zero emissions. As the EU considers extending CBAM to the chemical sector by 2030, its effectiveness in this complex industry remains uncertain. Here, we assess the EU CBAM’s effectiveness using a Life-Cycle Assessment of 4,470 global chemical production facilities. We find that the current CBAM framework accounts for 50–60% of production emissions for key products like ethylene and polyethylene. This limited emission coverage risks compromising the policy’s ambition. To address this, CBAM would need to (1) include fossil feedstocks and refinery products, and (2) implement high fallback default values for embodied emissions to incentivize data reporting. Thus, our study underscores the importance of careful supply chain tracking. Furthermore, we recommend engaging chemical industry experts before policy implementation to ensure CBAM fosters an equitable net-zero transition without unintended consequences. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Full Text Additional Declarations Yes there is potential Competing Interest. A.B. and R.M have ownership interests in carbon minds, the company supplying the data used for this study. A.B. has served on review committees for research and development at ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, oil and gas companies that are also active in polymer production. The remaining authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Supplementary Files CBAMchemicalsSIfinal.docx Supplementary Information to “Accounting for Embodied Emissions of Chemicals within the European Carbon Border Adjustment Measure” Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Sep, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5669037","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":400028196,"identity":"282591e0-8b8b-47a8-a70e-c48bcaf5b82b","order_by":0,"name":"André Bardow","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCSDmYWCQA5MMDAeI12LMwEaqlsQGorXwz25+9uFNxeH0fvnewx8Yau4QYcmdY8Yz55w5nDuzjS/BgOHYMyIcdiPBmJm37XbuhmM8BgmMDYcJ65C/kf4ZpCXdHqjlAFFaDG7kgG1JMGDjMWwgSovhnTPFjHPO/DeccSzHmCHhGBFa5G63b2Z4U5Emz998xvjDhxoitKCCBFI1jIJRMApGwSjADgBCNDwgI4U3NwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3831-0691","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"André","middleName":"","lastName":"Bardow","suffix":""},{"id":400028197,"identity":"c05aa802-a85d-4b6d-b200-1f7f557ce496","order_by":1,"name":"Hannah Minten","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hannah","middleName":"","lastName":"Minten","suffix":""},{"id":400028198,"identity":"476dec53-43d5-4d7b-98fe-8100f24de2bb","order_by":2,"name":"Julian Hausweiler","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Julian","middleName":"","lastName":"Hausweiler","suffix":""},{"id":400028199,"identity":"6ae87ce5-6b16-48e0-8b6c-1783dc96ffe8","order_by":3,"name":"Benedict Probst","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1149-8938","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benedict","middleName":"","lastName":"Probst","suffix":""},{"id":400028200,"identity":"73440992-2f9c-4cdf-a1b0-69b91190f0b8","order_by":4,"name":"Christiane Reinert","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christiane","middleName":"","lastName":"Reinert","suffix":""},{"id":400028201,"identity":"72d80f7c-5a64-48dd-926c-67a5e8b82c5e","order_by":5,"name":"Raoul Meys","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"1) Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University 2) Carbon Minds GmbH","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Raoul","middleName":"","lastName":"Meys","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-18 11:35:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5669037/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5669037/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01618-5","type":"published","date":"2025-09-10T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91149421,"identity":"3dbe21ad-f328-47af-9f5c-c4a56f25fe1d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-12 06:49:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":852541,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CBAMchemicalsmanuscriptfinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5669037/v1_covered_638b070a-a61c-4754-b69b-67473a6dec6b.pdf"},{"id":73478601,"identity":"746661e1-e45d-4fd8-9ed3-8982304367c0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-10 10:57:25","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":757221,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information to \u0026#x201C;Accounting for Embodied Emissions of Chemicals within the European Carbon Border Adjustment Measure\u0026#x201D;","description":"","filename":"CBAMchemicalsSIfinal.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5669037/v1/e2b482578fd7722920323861.docx"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cb\u003eYes\u003c/b\u003e there is potential Competing Interest.\nA.B. and R.M have ownership interests in carbon minds, the company supplying the data used for this study. 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