Is China on the Track of Its Climate Pledge: A Multi-scenario Simulation of China’s Energy-Related Co2 Emissions Pathways Based on Kaya Identity

Abstract China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO2 emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO2 emissions that explicitly considers China’s economic and social development goals in the medium and long term, with analyzing the development trends of various driving factors of CO2 emissions. Different scenarios for 2020-2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy consumption will peak at 6200 Mtce in 2035 in the BAU scenario and at 5900 Mtce in 2030 in the accelerated transition scenario. With existing policy, energy-related CO2 emissions will peak at about 11.1 Gt in 2026-2027, and in the accelerated transition scenario it can be potentially reduced by 300-400 Mt. In the BAU scenario, the net CO2 emissions will remain around 2000Mt in 2060, after removing 1800Mt CO2 by CCS/CCUS, indicating that China need enhance its post-2030 policy strength to deliver the carbon neutrality pledge. Steady energy efficiency improvement, radical industrial and energy restructuring are three key driving forces for carbon neutrality.