Testing for treatment effect heterogeneity: Educational reform, genetic propensities, and family background

Testing for treatment effect heterogeneity: Educational reform, genetic propensities, and family background | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Testing for treatment effect heterogeneity: Educational reform, genetic propensities, and family background Aysu Okbay, Rafael Ahlskog, Jonathan Beauchamp, Sven Oskarsson, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5966545/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We study the heterogeneous effects of a Swedish educational reform that increased compulsory schooling from seven to nine years. Following a pre-registered Analysis Plan, we examine how the reform differentially affected 20 outcomes in various domains (education, the labor market, fertility, substance use, and health) for individuals with different genetic propensities towards these outcomes. To estimate the effects of the reform, we leverage the gradual roll-out of the reform with a differences-in-differences estimator that compares municipalities and birth cohorts before and after the reform. Among 105 pre-registered tests of heterogeneous effects as a function of genetic propensities (across outcomes, sexes, and family SES background), we find two significant interactions after correction for multiple hypothesis testing. One of these implies that, among females from high-SES families, the reform had a relatively larger effect on earnings for those with a lower genetic propensity for educational attainment. Our results suggest that sizable heterogeneous effects of educational reforms may not be ubiquitous but do exist, and highlight how careful study designs with preregistration can help uncover them. Social science/Economics Social science/Social policy Social science/Education Biological sciences/Genetics/Behavioural genetics treatment effect of schooling education reforms gene-environment interactions Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5966545","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":417540447,"identity":"01463ede-44d2-45a6-9821-ea1b7622c63c","order_by":0,"name":"Aysu Okbay","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACZmYgIQfjwEQtCGoxBmLGBiQtEgS1JDYQrYW/gfmwcUHN4fT+acefP/i4x1ped0Z24gfGHbi1SBxgS06ecexw7ozbOYaNM56lG267kbtZgvEMHocd4DE+zMN2OLfhdg5jM8+Bw4xALdsYGNtwa5EHa/l3OF3+dvrD5j8HDtsT1GIA1JLM23Y4weB2gmEzw4HDiQS1GB5mSzae2ZduuBHol5k9B9KTt515u1kiEY8WuePNh6ULvlnLy91Of/DhxwFr223Hczd++Nhmg9v7kIhoRhNNwK0BBuoIKxkFo2AUjIKRCwDYqVoAg23VyQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5170-7781","institution":"Amterdam UMC","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aysu","middleName":"","lastName":"Okbay","suffix":""},{"id":417540448,"identity":"41a60c1c-922f-44f5-90f9-9c05a9ac74fb","order_by":1,"name":"Rafael Ahlskog","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Uppsala University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rafael","middleName":"","lastName":"Ahlskog","suffix":""},{"id":417540449,"identity":"d6b75a6f-dc29-4e54-b553-60c31179cee6","order_by":2,"name":"Jonathan Beauchamp","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"George Mason University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jonathan","middleName":"","lastName":"Beauchamp","suffix":""},{"id":417540450,"identity":"266a8956-0ff3-4206-b017-5cda616ac2a2","order_by":3,"name":"Sven Oskarsson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8698-2866","institution":"Uppsala University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sven","middleName":"","lastName":"Oskarsson","suffix":""},{"id":417540451,"identity":"40684272-f30e-4572-b4c7-3927baee89eb","order_by":4,"name":"Kevin Thom","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Wisconsin","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kevin","middleName":"","lastName":"Thom","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-05 14:25:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5966545/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5966545/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":77286117,"identity":"355397cc-1bf5-4fb6-8efa-b587f560d42a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-27 05:29:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":910069,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Ahlskogetal2024TreatmentEffectHet.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5966545/v1_covered_0faa9ef1-767b-4f34-b80b-f95b4cd18e2d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Testing for treatment effect heterogeneity:\nEducational reform, genetic propensities, and family background","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"treatment effect of schooling, education reforms, gene-environment interactions","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5966545/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5966545/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"We study the heterogeneous effects of a Swedish educational reform that increased compulsory schooling from seven to nine years. 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