Do Human Restriction Mobility Policy in Indonesia Effectively Reduce the Spread of COVID-19

Since COVID-19 spread across the globe. Every country has attempted to reduce the spread by containment policy. Indonesia as one of the hot spot countries in South East Asia has been conduct this policy to reduce the spread. The Indonesian government introduce partial lockdown policy that called as Large Scale of Social Restriction (PSBB) in some regions. This paper examined the interaction between restriction of human mobility policy on spreading of COVID-19 confirmed case. I proxied human mobility dataset by hourly report of car congestion traffic from Waze application with sub level district. The COVID-19 confirm case retrieved from official government report with province level. In order to measure the impact of this policy, I conducted regression discontinuity design using consistent panel dataset across sub level district and daily frequency. The result indicates that the containment policy has various impact on other reduce. The policy that impact in adequate region such as DKI Jakarta has effectively reduced about 60%-70% of spreading COVID-19 confirmed case. Whereas the region with vast area such as West Java is depend on neighbor area less effectively impact on spreading COVID-19 confirm case. The model has produced robust estimation that containment policy will reduced human mobility on COVID-19 confirmed case. The results shows that unreported confirmed case of model predict about DKI Jakarta 160% - 180% higher than reported case. Whereas in West Java, unreported confirmed case about 220% - 300% higher than reported case.