Mathematical Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics using Constrained Threshold with Multi-Environmental Factors and Intervention Strategies

Mathematical Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics using Constrained Threshold with Multi-Environmental Factors and Intervention Strategies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mathematical Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics using Constrained Threshold with Multi-Environmental Factors and Intervention Strategies Akintayo Emmanuel Akinsunmade, Catherine Ngozi Ejieji, Oluwaseun Olumide Okundalaye, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7031817/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in International Journal of Tropical Insect Science → Version 1 posted 15 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study presents a mathematical model framework to study the life growth stages of mosquitoes in tropical regions. The developed model integrated a constraint threshold to analyze mosquito population dynamics by explicitly incorporating multi-environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, NDVI, dump sites, and poor drainage. The model employs a system of ordinary differential equations to simulate mosquito life stages and breeding site dynamics under stochastic environmental variability. Monte Carlo simulations was employed to evaluate the effectiveness of four intervention strategies and their improvements against a predefined probability target. Sensitivity analysis identifies dump sites, humidity, rainfall and temperature as the most influential factors across mosquito life stages. Results show that combined environmental and chemical interventions yield the highest success probability in reducing mosquito populations below the threshold. This study provides a risk awareness decision making framework for malaria control, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies targeting both ecological and anthropogenic drivers of mosquito proliferation. The model was implemented using environmental data of Akure, Nigeria to demonstrates its utility for localized public health planning and adaptive intervention deployment in tropical urban settings. The findings suggest that intervention should be deployed to target reduction of malaria vector by eradicating mosquito breeding sites which are influenced by human activities. Mosquito Population Dynamics Malaria Transmission Modeling Mathematical Model Optimal Control System Constrained Monte Carlo System Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in International Journal of Tropical Insect Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 02 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 21 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 20 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 08 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 02 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7031817","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":497346421,"identity":"e3c00ea7-bc51-4874-a8f1-0222a2bdc7a0","order_by":0,"name":"Akintayo Emmanuel Akinsunmade","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University of Medical Sciences","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Akintayo","middleName":"Emmanuel","lastName":"Akinsunmade","suffix":""},{"id":497346422,"identity":"554e86de-2e71-49f3-a164-2fb9fbcf58b6","order_by":1,"name":"Catherine Ngozi Ejieji","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Ilorin","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Catherine","middleName":"Ngozi","lastName":"Ejieji","suffix":""},{"id":497346423,"identity":"debf5edd-16c4-4b53-88e5-af356e7fad7a","order_by":2,"name":"Oluwaseun Olumide Okundalaye","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Adekunle Ajasin University Akungba-Akoko","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Oluwaseun","middleName":"Olumide","lastName":"Okundalaye","suffix":""},{"id":497346424,"identity":"b6a0c60f-e3cb-45ca-8af7-2097f6b6ba35","order_by":3,"name":"Sunday Ebenezer Adepoju","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Achievers University Owo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sunday","middleName":"Ebenezer","lastName":"Adepoju","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-02 17:53:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7031817/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7031817/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42690-026-01788-5","type":"published","date":"2026-02-09T15:58:29+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102786633,"identity":"d92fa4dc-ac99-4b7b-9896-6abd8a89f2dc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-16 16:14:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2223870,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"tayomosdyn.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7031817/v1_covered_e655329c-d9e6-4f17-a289-50a453d129f1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Mathematical Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics using Constrained Threshold with Multi-Environmental Factors and Intervention Strategies","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"international-journal-of-tropical-insect-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"jtis","sideBox":"Learn more about [International Journal of Tropical Insect Science](http://link.springer.com/journal/42690)","snPcode":"42690","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/jtis/default2.aspx","title":"International Journal of Tropical Insect Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Mosquito Population Dynamics,, Malaria Transmission Modeling, Mathematical Model, Optimal Control System, Constrained Monte Carlo System","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7031817/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7031817/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"This study presents a mathematical model framework to study the life growth stages of mosquitoes in tropical regions. 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