Modelling Hydrological Impact of Climate Change on Lake Hawassa Watershed, Southern Ethiopia

Modelling Hydrological Impact of Climate Change on Lake Hawassa Watershed, Southern Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Modelling Hydrological Impact of Climate Change on Lake Hawassa Watershed, Southern Ethiopia Wendmagegn Girma, Brook Abate This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6595215/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The sign of climate change and its impact is revealing on different natural and manmade systems directly or indirectly. In this study, hydrological impact of climate change on Lake Hawassa water balance components was estimated in response to the A2a and B2a emission scenarios. Observed and future climatic variables were used to verify the hydrological impact. The future climate variables were predicted by using General Circulation Model (GCM) which is considered as the most used tool for estimating the future climatic condition. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was applied in order to downscale the climate variables to watershed level. Then, hydrological model soil and water analysis tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate the water balance components and calibrated by SWAT CUP (calibration uncertainty program) with sequential Uncertainty Fitting, Version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm. The simulation result revealed that, by 2020s, the total average annual inflow volume into Lake Hawassa will rise significantly up to 6.14% for A2a and 5.9% for B2a-scenarios. Hydrology Climate Change General Circulation Model (GCM) SDSM SWAT Hydrological Model SWAT-CUP SUFI 2 algorithm Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6595215","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":452187344,"identity":"f6e8c62f-dc36-417d-8e89-562b46627054","order_by":0,"name":"Wendmagegn Girma","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACCSjN+ICB4QApWtgYmA1I1sImQZQWg+O9B298YLCTl5/fY1bNU3NHjp+B+eGjG/i0nDmXbDmDIdlwwzEes9s8x54ZSzawGRvn4NFidiPHTJqHgZlxAxtIC9vhxA0HeNik8Wq5/8ZM+g9Dvf38Nh6zYp5/xGi5wWMmzcBwOLEB6DBm3jYitNifyTG27DE4nrzhWFqx5Ny+w8aSzQT8Itl+xvDGj4pq2/nNhzd+ePPtsBw/e/PDx/i0QIABhGLiAZHMBJUjAcYfpKgeBaNgFIyCEQMAYPZJb+nQ40sAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7606-6080","institution":"Addis Ababa Science and Technology University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wendmagegn","middleName":"","lastName":"Girma","suffix":""},{"id":452188657,"identity":"b4c5c265-9053-4806-b3c0-7d1418ffe949","order_by":1,"name":"Brook Abate","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa Science and Technology University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brook","middleName":"","lastName":"Abate","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-05 14:10:59","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6595215/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6595215/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":82125268,"identity":"bd72f4bf-cf4a-495f-abed-2bc6869a9050","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-07 03:46:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":704456,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ModellingHydrologicalImpactIRJMTMay05.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6595215/v1_covered_c9ce66d0-e44e-4b88-912c-6268784743bc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eModelling Hydrological Impact of Climate Change on Lake Hawassa Watershed, Southern Ethiopia\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Addis Ababa Science and Technology University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate Change, General Circulation Model (GCM), SDSM, SWAT Hydrological Model, SWAT-CUP, SUFI 2 algorithm","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6595215/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6595215/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe sign of climate change and its impact is revealing on different natural and manmade systems directly or indirectly. 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