A low-return-period rainfall intensity formula for estimating the design return period of the combined interceptor sewers

Abstract The design rainfall intensity and its return period of the combined interceptor sewer is an important factor affecting CSO occurrence. However, we often use the interceptor ratio (or interceptor multiple, n0) to design the interceptor sewer, and its equivalent design return period is often ignored. In this study, a low return period rainfall formula modeling method was proposed to estimate this return period. First, a new rainfall event separation approach was especially developed, and the minimum interevent time (MIET) was set to time of concentration of the tributary area corresponding to the most downstream interceptor well. Second, a new rainfall intensity sampling algorithm, annual multi - event - maxima (AMEM) sampling algorithm, was put forward. For this sampling algorithm, several maxima of rainfall intensity should be sampled annually, and only one maximum is sampled for each rainfall event. In addition, the empirical frequency values of the above sampled rainfall intensities can be obtained according to the mathematical expectation formula (Weibull formula). After comparison, the lognormal distribution was selected for the theoretical probability density function. Finally, parameters of the low return period rainfall intensity formula were estimated using three-parameter Horner formula and MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) algorithm. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the proposed method based on the recorded rainfall data from a meteorological station in southwestern China. Results revealed that: (a) A MIET determination method was proposed according to the independence of CSO events. (b) An annual multi-event-maxima (AMEM) sampling was proposed for collecting samples of the low return period rainfall intensity. (3) For the case study, the best-fit distribution for the low return period rainfall intensity was the lognormal distribution. (4) The resulted low return period rainfall intensity formula in this study can be presented as i = 28.2852(1+0.882lgP) / t+28.662)0.921.