Change in Potential Suitable Areas and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantations in the "Ω"-Shaped Bend of the Yellow River Under Climate Change

Change in Potential Suitable Areas and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantations in the "Ω"-Shaped Bend of the Yellow River Under Climate Change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Change in Potential Suitable Areas and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantations in the "Ω"-Shaped Bend of the Yellow River Under Climate Change Wang Dongli¹, Shi Qiangqiang¹, Zhang Jinlin¹, Zhao Xiaoliang¹, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8559682/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Robinia pseudoacacia is a major tree species for soil and water conservation afforestation in the "Three-North" Region, with crucial ecological improvement and carbon sequestration functions. This study aimed to investigate the dynamics of suitable areas and carbon storage of R. pseudoacacia plantations under different future climate scenarios, further reveal the changing trend of their carbon sequestration potential, and provide a scientific basis for the rational layout and sustainable management of R. pseudoacacia plantations in the "Ω"-shaped bend of the Yellow River. Based on the MaxEnt model, we predicted the potential suitable distribution of R. pseudoacacia under future climate change scenarios, identified the potentially threatened geographical distribution regions and area changes of R. pseudoacacia , and clarified the limiting factors affecting the potential geographical distribution of R. pseudoacacia plantations by analyzing the contribution rates and permutation importance of comprehensive environmental variables. Combined with the InVEST model, we estimated and analyzed the spatial distribution of carbon storage in R. pseudoacacia plantations in the 2090s. Results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of R. pseudoacacia plantations, with a contribution rate of 46.98%, followed by annual precipitation. Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable areas of R. pseudoacacia plantations were mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, Hetao Plain, Ordos Plateau, Kubuqi Desert, and northern Mu Us Sandy Land. The highly suitable areas were mainly concentrated in the south-central part of the Loess Plateau, accounting for approximately 22.81% of the total area of the "Ω"-shaped bend of the Yellow River. Under future climate change, the moderately and highly suitable areas tended to shift northwestward. Under the four future climate scenarios, the carbon storage and carbon density of R. pseudoacacia plantations showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing; by 2100, the carbon storage reached the maximum under the SSP370 scenario, and the areas with medium-to-high carbon storage first expanded and then contracted, mainly concentrated in the Ordos Plateau and Loess Plateau. "Ω"-shaped bend of the Yellow River MaxEnt model InVEST model climate change carbon sequestration potential Robinia pseudoacacia Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 18 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 15 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 15 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 09 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8559682","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":580401962,"identity":"9e7d0088-0683-4975-8966-fa6c0a4a8e98","order_by":0,"name":"Wang Dongli¹","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wang","middleName":"","lastName":"Dongli¹","suffix":""},{"id":580401963,"identity":"1abcbf47-e7f0-40af-b101-69e1f70aef11","order_by":1,"name":"Shi 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This study aimed to investigate the dynamics of suitable areas and carbon storage of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e plantations under different future climate scenarios, further reveal the changing trend of their carbon sequestration potential, and provide a scientific basis for the rational layout and sustainable management of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e plantations in the \"Ω\"-shaped bend of the Yellow River. Based on the MaxEnt model, we predicted the potential suitable distribution of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e under future climate change scenarios, identified the potentially threatened geographical distribution regions and area changes of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e, and clarified the limiting factors affecting the potential geographical distribution of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e plantations by analyzing the contribution rates and permutation importance of comprehensive environmental variables. Combined with the InVEST model, we estimated and analyzed the spatial distribution of carbon storage in \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e plantations in the 2090s. Results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e plantations, with a contribution rate of 46.98%, followed by annual precipitation. Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable areas of \u003cem\u003eR. pseudoacacia\u003c/em\u003e plantations were mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, Hetao Plain, Ordos Plateau, Kubuqi Desert, and northern Mu Us Sandy Land. The highly suitable areas were mainly concentrated in the south-central part of the Loess Plateau, accounting for approximately 22.81% of the total area of the \"Ω\"-shaped bend of the Yellow River. 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