Sociodemographic and Clinical Predictors of Chronic Disease Outcomes in a Colombian Population: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 2495 Patients

Objectives: This study aimed to identify predictors of absence versus presence of alteration in system status to inform targeted interventions. Methods: In a cross-sectional analysis of 2495 patients (70.1% women) from Bogotá’s public health facilities (Colombia Open Data, 2023), associations were examined between sociodemographic factors (gender, age groups, education, ethnicity) and clinical variables (BMI, disability type, COVID-19 vaccination, psychiatric risk, dyspnea scale) with health outcomes. Chi-square tests identified bivariate associations, and multivariable logistic regression predicted absence of alteration (reference: presence of alteration), reporting odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and model fit indicators (deviance, AIC, McFadden’s R²). Outliers were removed using z-scores; significance was set at p<0.05. Results: Women predominated in obesity (81% vs. 19% of men, p<0.001) and in health statuses without alteration but showed higher disability prevalence (16% vs. 6% in men, p<0.001). Men exhibited more altered statuses (e.g., pulmonary: 53.8% vs. 46.2%, p=0.006) and mental disabilities (70%, p<0.001). Underweight and obesity reduced odds of pulmonary alteration (OR=0.08 each, p<0.02) compared with overweight, whereas obesity decreased odds of absence of neurological alteration (OR=0.04, p=0.011). Absence of disability strongly favored absence of alteration (neurological OR=76.95, p<0.001). Lack of education increased odds of mental alteration (OR=2.67, p=0.006). Models showed moderate to excellent fit (R²=0.25–0.72). Conclusions: Gender, BMI, disability, age, and education are key predictors in NCD-related system alterations. Interventions such as BMI management and education strategies may reduce disparities and support WHO 2025 targets. Longitudinal research is recommended to strengthen causal interpretations.