Cointegration Analysis of Ambient Ozone on Respiratory Disease Prevalence in Southern California

Cointegration Analysis of Ambient Ozone on Respiratory Disease Prevalence in Southern California | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Cointegration Analysis of Ambient Ozone on Respiratory Disease Prevalence in Southern California Sung Eun Kim, Sean Krinik, Doyeon Kong This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7448875/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The short- and long-run effects of ambient pollution—particularly surface ozone—on respiratory health are well documented. Ambient pollutants from agricultural, industrial, and vehicular sources are monitored by statewide and federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Elevated ozone levels are strongly associated with increased respiratory morbidity, especially chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study models the dynamic relationship between ambient ozone concentrations and monthly inpatient COPD diagnoses across three major Southern California counties. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework with bounds testing procedures, the study assesses whether a cointegrating relationship exists between ozone levels and monthly COPD inpatient diagnoses. The final error correction model (ECMs) is constructed to access the rapid and persistent influence of ozone on respiratory health. Findings reveal a statistically significant cointegration relationship: after adjusting for seasonality and temporal trends, a 0.01 ppm increase in monthly average maximum ozone concentration corresponds to a 3.26% (95% CI: 0.84 ~ 5.73%) rise in monthly COPD diagnoses. Moreover, the estimated ECM coefficient indicates that approximately 46.5% (95% CI: 29.0~63.9%) of any disequilibrium is correlated within one month. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) Error Correction Model (ECM) Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Respiratory Health Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7448875","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":505949727,"identity":"d7f32cb5-b349-4b9e-b759-55826b98118f","order_by":0,"name":"Sung Eun Kim","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzUlEQVRIie3OMQrCMBTG8QeCLlLX18VeIRIIHbyJS7M4JR5BnezoWm9REKRjQTBLDpCxXYqDQ7yBBhycTN0E819C4PvBAwiFfrYaYeLedus+fUns1vwLAkDqviQp5PkKOl1QpTrkFUwjk30mxKyWKRiUJy0Ycg009hIUjIB9EjMeIt8BL30kKV7kWIw6RzZeAkbQxh1WIjBHMuI9TN8YZBploQVNucbZQTeew3JBrb2s5T5XrblX8yRSvsMAhvi2Qe/cNbC9ZqFQKPS/PQC4aEmzqkNn5QAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"California State University, Long Beach","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sung","middleName":"Eun","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""},{"id":505949728,"identity":"e9ee116c-59ea-4b08-93c0-5ba82e2582b3","order_by":1,"name":"Sean Krinik","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"California State University, Long Beach","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sean","middleName":"","lastName":"Krinik","suffix":""},{"id":505949729,"identity":"6aef2616-692b-44e3-a106-e4d905511dee","order_by":2,"name":"Doyeon Kong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"California State University, Long Beach","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Doyeon","middleName":"","lastName":"Kong","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-25 02:08:09","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7448875/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7448875/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92615321,"identity":"e4ab4c33-d674-4970-8b03-d8ed084a5ecf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-01 17:31:41","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":463847,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CointegrationAnalysisfinaldraft.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7448875/v1_covered_c6b8fdaf-c11f-4fde-9509-fc459973750b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Cointegration Analysis of Ambient Ozone on Respiratory Disease Prevalence in Southern California","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), Error Correction Model (ECM), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Respiratory Health","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7448875/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7448875/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe short- and long-run effects of ambient pollution—particularly surface ozone—on respiratory health are well documented. 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