A Clinical Predictive Model of Progesterone Elevation on the Day of HCG Administration Was Establish Based on the Basal P, BMI and Ovarian Induction Regimen

Background: The progesterone elevation (PE) on the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) is associated with a significant decrease in the probability of clinical pregnancy after fresh embryo transfer. The goal of this study was to develop a nomogram to explore the baseline indexes to predict the occurrence of PE (0.9ng/ml) on the day of HCG administration before IVF/ICSI treatment. Methods: The patients who were performed a GnRH agonist or antagonist pituitary suppression protocol during controlled ovulation stimulation(COS) in reproductive center of Changzhou maternal and child health care hospital from 2017-2019 were included. The nomogram was built from all participants. Results: Three variates significantly associated with the PE occurrence on the HCG administration of infertility women were the type ovulation regiment, basal P and BMI. This predictive model showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.639（95%CI 0.596~0.681）. Hosmer and Leme show test were performed for evaluating both calibration and discrimination and confirmed our nomogram is a user-friendly graphical representation of the model (χ 2 = 4.750，P=0.784) Conclusion: The nomogram presents graphically association factors (type ovulation regiment, basal P and BMI) and prediction models which can offer simple and useful guidance to avoid the PE occurrence on the HCG administration for clinicians and infertility patients.