A DNDC Modelling Approach to Soil Organic Carbon: Long-term Dynamics and Century-Scale Responses in an Eastern Chinese Salt Marsh Wetland

A DNDC Modelling Approach to Soil Organic Carbon: Long-term Dynamics and Century-Scale Responses in an Eastern Chinese Salt Marsh Wetland | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A DNDC Modelling Approach to Soil Organic Carbon: Long-term Dynamics and Century-Scale Responses in an Eastern Chinese Salt Marsh Wetland Tang Fang, Zhou Zhonglai, Xu Min This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9269850/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coastal salt marsh wetlands are pivotal blue carbon ecosystems due to their high carbon sequestration capacity resulting from seawater inundation. However, understanding the long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in these regions and driving factors have been hindered by complexities and challenging in SOC modeling. To address this, we applied the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model to simulate long-term SOC dynamics under varying initial conditions and presented influencing factors of SOC distribution in the Jiangsu coastal wetlands. The results showed that the calibrated DNDC model effectively captured SOC patterns, revealing that Spartina alterniflora marshes led SOC accumulation, followed by Phragmites australis and Suaeda salsa marshes, while tidal flats exhibited a declining trend over time. This divergence is attributed to greater plant biomass input outweighing microbial carbon losses in these vegetated areas, whereas a mechanism absent in unvegetated bare flats. Correlation analysis indicated that soil abiotic characteristics such as total nitrogen, available phosphorus and soil texture were important factors affecting SOC content changes on the whole. Centennial-scale simulations further showed that higher initial carbon content and finer soil textures could delay SOC equilibrium by centuries. This study underscores the value of process-based models in predicting salt marsh wetland carbon content and highlights the need for their application across diverse blue carbon ecosystems to improve stewardship of these vital blue carbon sinks. Soil Organic Carbon Denitrification-Decomposition model Long-term dynamics Driving factors Century-Scale Response Coastal salt marsh wetland Full Text Supplementary Files Highlights.docx SI.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 02 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 01 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 31 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9269850","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":617793478,"identity":"a053e3ac-06d0-4fd0-983c-d73619242219","order_by":0,"name":"Tang Fang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/UlEQVRIie3RvUrEQBDA8QmB2IwX7HYJxFeYYyFV4F5lQyDVISeC7UUCWx3Y5vAlfIQ9hEsTtI1dxFqIXGthEmxsNikF998sDPuD/QCw2f5gvl8cWkkM/bMcaBzpCcLLY0rdJg75Ts8kpNfRRdllghr5M5oioHXkIj0l+euHvrlWEC4a6Zw2BuEUefY+kLuHKyn2CgRvpBuUBuKCrsRAimBN4lxB8thIz0UD8SBRwUAUr0eynSQIqcdLygQyHImkKcLY0aWO4pBhfzB8Zst9/VYEJrJ6uf9s5RfDVVVHAm/jy0WVHk4m8ute/VeyfnXymaB/vXb2VpvNZvtXfQMOjEwBX7/XeAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7812-5044","institution":"Nanjing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tang","middleName":"","lastName":"Fang","suffix":""},{"id":617793479,"identity":"56bd0681-89be-43aa-a908-883f0389ae02","order_by":1,"name":"Zhou Zhonglai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhou","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhonglai","suffix":""},{"id":617793480,"identity":"1129aa3f-572c-4a2c-8e99-969ad1b1b0a9","order_by":2,"name":"Xu Min","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8784-3825","institution":"Nanjing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xu","middleName":"","lastName":"Min","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-30 16:36:03","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9269850/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9269850/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106727298,"identity":"deac9390-f07c-466a-8f42-b3be0e11bded","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-12 18:38:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":959578,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript0331.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9269850/v1_covered_67b2b609-87ba-482d-bcc5-ab6091011e88.pdf"},{"id":106725162,"identity":"b28713db-8220-4998-833c-a2052e15558a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-12 18:31:38","extension":"docx","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":12502,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Highlights.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9269850/v1/64a55736bd2650e0ada7650c.docx"},{"id":106548065,"identity":"e67c8e72-a896-45c4-8cd9-91f5bc2289f9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-09 17:26:56","extension":"docx","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":188522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SI.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9269850/v1/9df46a8f4da4180cafd09bcc.docx"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"A DNDC Modelling Approach to Soil Organic Carbon: Long-term Dynamics and Century-Scale Responses in an Eastern Chinese Salt Marsh Wetland","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"wetlands","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"wela","sideBox":"Learn more about [Wetlands](https://www.springer.com/journal/13157)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/wela/default.aspx","title":"Wetlands","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Soil Organic Carbon, Denitrification-Decomposition model, Long-term dynamics, Driving factors, Century-Scale Response, Coastal salt marsh wetland","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9269850/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9269850/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCoastal salt marsh wetlands are pivotal blue carbon ecosystems due to their high carbon sequestration capacity resulting from seawater inundation. However, understanding the long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in these regions and driving factors have been hindered by complexities and challenging in SOC modeling. To address this, we applied the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model to simulate long-term SOC dynamics under varying initial conditions and presented influencing factors of SOC distribution in the Jiangsu coastal wetlands. The results showed that the calibrated DNDC model effectively captured SOC patterns, revealing that \u003cem\u003eSpartina alterniflora\u003c/em\u003e marshes led SOC accumulation, followed by \u003cem\u003ePhragmites australis\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eSuaeda salsa\u003c/em\u003e marshes, while tidal flats exhibited a declining trend over time. This divergence is attributed to greater plant biomass input outweighing microbial carbon losses in these vegetated areas, whereas a mechanism absent in unvegetated bare flats. Correlation analysis indicated that soil abiotic characteristics such as total nitrogen, available phosphorus and soil texture were important factors affecting SOC content changes on the whole. Centennial-scale simulations further showed that higher initial carbon content and finer soil textures could delay SOC equilibrium by centuries. This study underscores the value of process-based models in predicting salt marsh wetland carbon content and highlights the need for their application across diverse blue carbon ecosystems to improve stewardship of these vital blue carbon sinks.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"A DNDC Modelling Approach to Soil Organic Carbon: Long-term Dynamics and Century-Scale Responses in an Eastern Chinese Salt Marsh Wetland","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-09 17:26:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9269850/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2026-04-06T02:49:27+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-05T13:19:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"Wetlands","date":"2026-04-02T22:18:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-04-02T02:44:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Wetlands","date":"2026-03-31T09:56:49+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"wetlands","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"wela","sideBox":"Learn more about [Wetlands](https://www.springer.com/journal/13157)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/wela/default.aspx","title":"Wetlands","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2d4131ef-4c2a-4f27-8f7d-5d6485cf66aa","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 9th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T17:26:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-09 17:26:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9269850","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9269850","identity":"rs-9269850","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}