The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150

The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150 Vanessa Völz, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Lars Honsel, Robert Nicholls, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6314787/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coastal adaptation to sea level rise involves combining and sequencing adaptation options into adaptation pathways that include adaptation tipping points - moments requiring a switch between options, often due to economic limits. While local case studies show costs depend on the economically optimal timing of actions and adaptation tipping points, this remains unexplored on global and continental scales. We present economically optimal adaptation pathways for 41,327 coastal floodplains along Europe's coastline through 2150. For 99% of floodplains requiring adaptation, the optimal timing for initial actions is immediate due to current economic under-adaption. Adaptation tipping points, primarily driven by sea level rise, predominantly occur along the Mediterranean coastline, necessitating a switch from accommodation to either protection or retreat. Their timing depends on climate change, occurring 30 years earlier under higher climate change scenarios compared to lower ones. In contrast, socioeconomic parameters have minimal impact on the timing of adaptation tipping points. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts sea level rise adaptation tipping points coastal impacts cost-benefit analysis Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6314787","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":452282516,"identity":"e6bda9ae-73bc-4131-9d5c-4e56e30fd95d","order_by":0,"name":"Vanessa Völz","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1450-8513","institution":"Global Climate Forum (GCF)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vanessa","middleName":"","lastName":"Völz","suffix":""},{"id":452282517,"identity":"977cf422-bd7f-4ca9-a5d1-4f2dfc41560b","order_by":1,"name":"Jochen Hinkel","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7590-992X","institution":"Global Climate Forum (GCF)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jochen","middleName":"","lastName":"Hinkel","suffix":""},{"id":452282518,"identity":"8c40957f-382a-49b4-b8ed-deaa8f851353","order_by":2,"name":"Daniel Lincke","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4250-5077","institution":"Global Climate Forum","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Lincke","suffix":""},{"id":452282519,"identity":"8bb74bcb-81e2-4575-9f6b-f5f6f767db3e","order_by":3,"name":"Lars Honsel","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7407-6353","institution":"Global Climate Forum","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lars","middleName":"","lastName":"Honsel","suffix":""},{"id":452282520,"identity":"f822f8bc-c630-430e-abb4-e52b13064769","order_by":4,"name":"Robert Nicholls","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109","institution":"Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Nicholls","suffix":""},{"id":452282521,"identity":"3b0f9b7f-debd-47c2-a563-5dac9f214cbe","order_by":5,"name":"Rémi Thiéblemont","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"BRGM - 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