Estimating the size of aedes mosquitoes’ population involved in outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya and its relationship with climatic factors

Estimating the size of aedes mosquitoes’ population involved in outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya and its relationship with climatic factors | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Estimating the size of aedes mosquitoes’ population involved in outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya and its relationship with climatic factors Francisco Antônio Bezerra Coutinho, Marcos Amaku, Fernanda Castro Boulos, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5828710/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Aedes aegypti continues to cause large number of cases of dengue, chikungunya and zika fever in the affected areas of the tropical world. After being eradicated from Brazil in the decades if 1940 and 1950, Aedes aegipti returned with full force in the early 1970s. Knowing the total number of mosquitoes transmitting aedes-borne infections in crucial to quantifying the intensity of transmission of these infections. Methods In this paper, we propose a model to estimate the distribution of aedes mosquitoes’ population during an outbreak of either dengue or chikungunya. The model assumes that the mosquitoes’ distribution follows a Gaussian Mesa Function, which has five parameters and allows for a variable asymmetry. These five parameters are adjusted so that it fits indirectly, from a modified Ross-Macdonald model, the incidence of dengue or chikungunya infections (see main text). Results We illustrate the model with data of dengue and chikungunya from five cities from the State of Minas Gerais in the Southeastern region of Brazil for the 2023-2024 transmission season. In addition, we show that the calculated mosquitoes’ distribution correlates with climatic variables in the five cities studied. Conclusions The model shows that it is possible to estimate the size of the mosquitoes’ population from incidence data, circumventing the logistic hurdles involved in the actual counting of mosquitoes, and that the mosquitoes’ distribution correlates well with rain patterns in the studied cities, but not with temperature. Aedes aegipti dengue chikungunya vector-borne infections mathematical modelling epidemiology Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5828710","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":402109595,"identity":"4b428580-151e-49f5-8ed9-e3235a2eccb8","order_by":0,"name":"Francisco Antônio Bezerra Coutinho","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of São Paulo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francisco","middleName":"Antônio Bezerra","lastName":"Coutinho","suffix":""},{"id":402109603,"identity":"a2918dce-6fcd-478c-bf91-4a2b22eb4daf","order_by":1,"name":"Marcos Amaku","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of São 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