Surrogate Modeling Framework for Cantilever Sheet Pile Wall Stability Assessment: Case Study Campus Ullevål

Surrogate Modeling Framework for Cantilever Sheet Pile Wall Stability Assessment: Case Study Campus Ullevål | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Surrogate Modeling Framework for Cantilever Sheet Pile Wall Stability Assessment: Case Study Campus Ullevål Andreas-Nizar Granitzer, Hilde Aas Nøst, Egil Monsås, Georg Erharter, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8163979/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study presents a surrogate modeling framework for evaluating the stability of cantilever sheet pile walls in soft clay deposits and applies it to the real-world excavation project Campus Ullev˚al. Key design variables and soil parameters driving cantilever sheet pile wall stability are varied to generate a representative dataset for training surrogate models based on strength-reduction finite element analyses. The surrogate models are constructed using polynomial chaos expansions to provide fast and accurate factor of safety predictions across a wide design variable space, avoiding repeated solution of computationally expensive boundary value problems. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the undrained shear strength of the clay layers is the dominant factor, whereas the properties of the lime-cement stabilization have a subordinate effect in the reference case. The framework further enables fully probabilistic analyses by quantifying uncertainty propagation and reliability metrics, showing that reducing epistemic uncertainty may be essential to meet target reliability requirements. This underscores the importance of thorough site investigation and provides a transparent basis for communicating its value to project stakeholders. Beyond sensitivity and reliability analyses, the surrogate modeling framework can be extended to support real-time back-analysis of model parameters and automated design optimization. Civil Engineering Computer Architecture and Engineering cantilever sheet pile wall surrogate finite element stability reliability Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8163979","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":548089237,"identity":"0a6f6365-7964-40d9-9347-5b9266cf8d9a","order_by":0,"name":"Andreas-Nizar Granitzer","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5839-4300","institution":"Norwegian Geotechnical Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andreas-Nizar","middleName":"","lastName":"Granitzer","suffix":""},{"id":548089238,"identity":"24c64a43-d5fc-46df-bdce-fde5d8205eb3","order_by":1,"name":"Hilde Aas Nøst","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5120-4096","institution":"Norwegian Geotechnical Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hilde","middleName":"Aas","lastName":"Nøst","suffix":""},{"id":548089239,"identity":"72b662f9-4669-47bf-89d2-42b600c68e89","order_by":2,"name":"Egil Monsås","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6481-7430","institution":"Norwegian Geotechnical Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Egil","middleName":"","lastName":"Monsås","suffix":""},{"id":548089240,"identity":"36ce4422-f7df-4aa8-b4e5-e1d53db4e333","order_by":3,"name":"Georg Erharter","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7793-9994","institution":"Norwegian Geotechnical Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Georg","middleName":"","lastName":"Erharter","suffix":""},{"id":548089241,"identity":"36365ac6-7bba-49a1-907c-9bf6c3aa54ea","order_by":4,"name":"Johannes Leo","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9036-9408","institution":"Graz University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Johannes","middleName":"","lastName":"Leo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-20 11:16:38","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8163979/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8163979/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96455413,"identity":"544905fa-060a-49b1-8426-150447937585","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-21 10:04:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2582794,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"2025GranitzerEtAlSurrogateModelingFrameworkforCantileverSheetPileWallStabilityAssessment.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8163979/v1_covered_f2e28eb2-874a-4ca9-b7b3-bbb8aa83a9d4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eSurrogate Modeling Framework for Cantilever Sheet Pile Wall Stability Assessment: Case Study Campus Ullevål\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Norwegian Geotechnical Institute","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"cantilever sheet pile wall, surrogate, finite element, stability, reliability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8163979/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8163979/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study presents a surrogate modeling framework for evaluating the stability of cantilever sheet pile walls in soft clay deposits and applies it to the real-world excavation project Campus Ullev˚al. Key design variables and soil parameters driving cantilever sheet pile wall stability are varied to generate a representative dataset for training surrogate models based on strength-reduction finite element analyses. The surrogate models are constructed using polynomial chaos expansions to provide fast and accurate factor of safety predictions across a wide design variable space, avoiding repeated solution of computationally expensive boundary value problems. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the undrained shear strength of the clay layers is the dominant factor, whereas the properties of the lime-cement stabilization have a subordinate effect in the reference case. The framework further enables fully probabilistic analyses by quantifying uncertainty propagation and reliability metrics, showing that reducing epistemic uncertainty may be essential to meet target reliability requirements. This underscores the importance of thorough site investigation and provides a transparent basis for communicating its value to project stakeholders. Beyond sensitivity and reliability analyses, the surrogate modeling framework can be extended to support real-time back-analysis of model parameters and automated design optimization.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Surrogate Modeling Framework for Cantilever Sheet Pile Wall Stability Assessment: Case Study Campus Ullevål","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-21 02:40:10","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8163979/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ec893ab5-8b30-4d19-ba3a-c3966ca1ebc3","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 21st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":58316592,"name":"Civil Engineering"},{"id":58316593,"name":"Computer Architecture and Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-21T02:40:10+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-21 02:40:10","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8163979","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8163979","identity":"rs-8163979","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}