Aggregation of Expert Judgments for Climate Tipping Points

Aggregation of Expert Judgments for Climate Tipping Points | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Aggregation of Expert Judgments for Climate Tipping Points Marcello Basili, Federico Crudu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7557138/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper evaluates the probability of climate tipping points (CTPs) occurring by aggregating expert judgments. We use the Steiner point to derive probability mass functions from probability interval data and estimate tipping point probabilities under different warming scenarios, and then update them to project potential future outcomes. Results show that CTPs, traditionally viewed as low-probability-high-impact events, may have a significant chance of occurring even under low-warming scenarios (1-2°C). This finding highlights the urgent need for mitigation and containment policies to lower the chance of crossing these CTPs. Our analysis suggests that triggering CTPs becomes increasingly likely under scenarios of 2-4°C warming and above. Aggregation of opinions Bayesian updating global warming judgmental forecasting Steiner point tipping points. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7557138","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":524779772,"identity":"ca08fc17-233c-4234-91e6-6fa7b17b2e70","order_by":0,"name":"Marcello Basili","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Siena","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marcello","middleName":"","lastName":"Basili","suffix":""},{"id":524779774,"identity":"d834d8fe-f84d-4147-88a1-9d602a28b535","order_by":1,"name":"Federico 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