Predicting Particulate Matter (PM10) Levels in Morocco: A 5-Day Forecast Using the Analog Ensemble Method.

Predicting Particulate Matter (PM10) Levels in Morocco: A 5-Day Forecast Using the Analog Ensemble Method. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Predicting Particulate Matter (PM10) Levels in Morocco: A 5-Day Forecast Using the Analog Ensemble Method. Anass Houdou, Kenza Khomsi, Luca Delle Monache, Weiming Hu, Saber Boutayeb, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4619478/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Accurate prediction of Particulate Matter ( \({PM}_{10}\) ) levels, an indicator of natural pollutants such as those resulting from dust storms, is crucial for public health and environmental planning. This study aims to provide accurate forecasts of \({PM}_{10}\) over Morocco for five days. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) and the Bias Correction (AnEnBc) techniques were employed to post-process \({PM}_{10}\) forecasts produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global atmospheric composition forecasts, using CAMS reanalysis data as a reference. The results show substantial prediction improvements: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreased from 63.83 \(\mu g/{m}^{3}\) in the original forecasts to 44.73 \(\mu g/{m}^{3}\) with AnEn and AnEnBc, while the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reduced from 36.70 \(\mu g/{m}^{3}\) to 24.30 \(\mu g/{m}^{3}\) . Additionally, the coefficient of determination ( \({R}^{2}\) ) increased more than twofold from 29.11–65.18%, and the Pearson correlation coefficient increased from 0.61 to 0.82. This is the first use of this approach for Morocco and the Middle East and North Africa and has the potential for translation into early and more accurate warnings of \({PM}_{10}\) pollution events. The application of such approaches in environmental policies and public health decision making can minimize air pollution health impacts. Air pollution Particulate matter (PM10) Forecasting Analog ensemble model Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service Morocco Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Jul, 2024 Reviews received at journal 29 Jul, 2024 Reviews received at journal 23 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 11 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 10 Jul, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Jul, 2024 First submitted to journal 21 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4619478","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":333746316,"identity":"81bf2630-868d-4d0c-9928-9f4bb4dd218d","order_by":0,"name":"Anass Houdou","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCSDmYWCQY2BgPkCaFmMGBrYE0rQkNjDwKBCng3928zGJNxWH0zdcO8P88QfDNnnCltw5liY558zh3A23c49J8zDcNmwgqOdGjpk0bxtIS14aMwPDbUaCWuShWtINbucYAx12256gFgOolgSgFgMJoMMSCWoxvJGWbDnnTLrhzNtpadI8BreTCWqRu5F88MabCmt5vtvJhz/+qLhtS1ALujtJVD8KRsEoGAWjADsAAFjQP+DOlr3pAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"International School of Public Health, Mohammed VI University of Sciences and Health","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anass","middleName":"","lastName":"Houdou","suffix":""},{"id":333746319,"identity":"5d2f37db-4dfb-45eb-bcdf-01b2d02bf0a6","order_by":1,"name":"Kenza Khomsi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mohammed VI University of Sciences and Health","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kenza","middleName":"","lastName":"Khomsi","suffix":""},{"id":333746322,"identity":"dcf1a180-f82a-41e0-8211-1f37a7553c29","order_by":2,"name":"Luca Delle Monache","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California San Diego","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luca","middleName":"Delle","lastName":"Monache","suffix":""},{"id":333746324,"identity":"51355592-563e-43e8-a58d-e99d3be8f7ee","order_by":3,"name":"Weiming Hu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"James Madison University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weiming","middleName":"","lastName":"Hu","suffix":""},{"id":333746325,"identity":"65ca4de1-7fc3-4fda-8fd0-8a000196d096","order_by":4,"name":"Saber Boutayeb","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mohammed VI Center for Research \u0026 Innovation","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Saber","middleName":"","lastName":"Boutayeb","suffix":""},{"id":333746328,"identity":"5756343d-e9e7-4889-ac43-da7cc1b41bc7","order_by":5,"name":"Lahcen Belyamani","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mohammed VI Center for Research \u0026 Innovation","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lahcen","middleName":"","lastName":"Belyamani","suffix":""},{"id":333746330,"identity":"6643f712-931e-46d2-977a-f37323b50d7f","order_by":6,"name":"Fayez Abdulla","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jordan University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fayez","middleName":"","lastName":"Abdulla","suffix":""},{"id":333746331,"identity":"c85affe4-2ec9-49c3-bbaf-b621617085ae","order_by":7,"name":"Wael K. Al-Delaimy","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California San Diego","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wael","middleName":"K.","lastName":"Al-Delaimy","suffix":""},{"id":333746334,"identity":"7c9a1cd0-c8d3-4df3-8474-d009a1ff61e6","order_by":8,"name":"Mohamed Khalis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"International School of Public Health, Mohammed VI University of Sciences and Health","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohamed","middleName":"","lastName":"Khalis","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-21 23:23:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4619478/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4619478/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13434-z","type":"published","date":"2024-12-02T15:57:30+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":70964718,"identity":"7eea2df8-e9a0-4b6b-9ae9-0e487bee71b6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-09 16:14:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1193346,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Article.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4619478/v1_covered_0a56fc19-ef2d-4303-a1da-4ab089f70bd2.pdf"},{"id":61676191,"identity":"e96625f3-b16a-4272-a9a1-c15af79163b6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-02 21:20:48","extension":"docx","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2203338,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterial.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4619478/v1/096466dbc60695865e747f0e.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Predicting Particulate Matter (PM10) Levels in Morocco: A 5-Day Forecast Using the Analog Ensemble Method.","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emas","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Monitoring and Assessment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10661)","snPcode":"10661","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10661/3","title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Air pollution, Particulate matter (PM10), Forecasting, Analog ensemble model, Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service, Morocco","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4619478/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4619478/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAccurate prediction of Particulate Matter (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\({PM}_{10}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) levels, an indicator of natural pollutants such as those resulting from dust storms, is crucial for public health and environmental planning. This study aims to provide accurate forecasts of \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\({PM}_{10}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e over Morocco for five days. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) and the Bias Correction (AnEnBc) techniques were employed to post-process \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\({PM}_{10}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e forecasts produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global atmospheric composition forecasts, using CAMS reanalysis data as a reference. The results show substantial prediction improvements: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreased from 63.83 \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\mu g/{m}^{3}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e in the original forecasts to 44.73 \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\mu g/{m}^{3}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e with AnEn and AnEnBc, while the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reduced from 36.70 \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\mu g/{m}^{3}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e to 24.30 \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\mu g/{m}^{3}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e. Additionally, the coefficient of determination (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\({R}^{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) increased more than twofold from 29.11\u0026ndash;65.18%, and the Pearson correlation coefficient increased from 0.61 to 0.82. This is the first use of this approach for Morocco and the Middle East and North Africa and has the potential for translation into early and more accurate warnings of \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\({PM}_{10}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e pollution events. The application of such approaches in environmental policies and public health decision making can minimize air pollution health impacts.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Predicting Particulate Matter (PM10) Levels in Morocco: A 5-Day Forecast Using the Analog Ensemble Method.","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-02 21:20:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4619478/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-07-30T12:35:16+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-07-29T19:33:48+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-07-23T13:12:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"134492711375109232924871871345207166485","date":"2024-07-15T17:35:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"116394092521660324144486488766699597153","date":"2024-07-15T06:23:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-07-11T20:56:28+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-07-10T11:37:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-07-10T11:36:34+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","date":"2024-06-21T23:12:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emas","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Monitoring and Assessment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10661)","snPcode":"10661","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10661/3","title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8314df07-712e-4786-a83b-5c397f946e56","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 2nd, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-12-09T16:02:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4619478","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13434-z","journal":{"identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment"},"publishedOn":"2024-12-02 15:57:30","publishedOnDateReadable":"December 2nd, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-02 21:20:43","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s10661-024-13434-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13434-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4619478","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4619478","identity":"rs-4619478","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}