Urban comprehensive carrying capacity and urbanization in Northeast China with urban shrinkage

Abstract The scientific evaluation and identification of the relationship between urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCC) and urbanization in Northeast China under serious urban shrinkage is an important basis for realizing the all-around revitalization of the region. Using a panel data set of 34 prefecture-level cities with six nonshrinking cities and 28 shrinking cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2019, this study constructs an ordinary panel data model and a static and dynamic spatial econometric model, the spatial Durbin model (SDM), to identify the relationship between the UCC and urbanization and to empirically investigate the impacts of the key control variables on UCC improvement. The results show a significant U-shaped curve relationship between the UCC and urbanization for the shrinking cities and a significant inverted U-shaped curve relationship for the nonshrinking cities, and the spillover effect of the urbanization is not significant. Moreover, social urbanization has a significant negative spatial effect on the local and neighborhood UCC of the nonshrinking cities, while demographic and spatial urbanization have significant positive spatial effects on the local and neighborhood UCC of the shrinking cities. In addition, fixed asset investment significantly promotes the UCC of the nonshrinking and shrinking cities and has significant positive spillover effects on the neighboring regions. R&D investment has a significant positive spatial effect on only the local and neighborhood UCC of the shrinking cities, while it has a significant positive effect on only the local UCC of the nonshrinking cities. New-type urbanization, industrial structure adjustment, new infrastructure construction and technological innovation are effective measures for improving and enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in Northeast China.