Enhancing Resilience Through Recovery Modeling in Multi-Hazard Contexts

Enhancing Resilience Through Recovery Modeling in Multi-Hazard Contexts | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Enhancing Resilience Through Recovery Modeling in Multi-Hazard Contexts Pouria kourehpaz, Carmine Galasso, Carlos Molina Hutt This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7238691/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Natural hazards striking in rapid succession impose compound disruptions on communities, extending recovery timelines and challenging resilience planning. Current post‐disaster assessments often treat events in isolation, overlooking how the timing and intensity of secondary hazards influence infrastructure restoration. Here, we develop a probabilistic framework that integrates hazard sequencing, time between hazard events, and relative intensities to quantify their combined effects on the recovery of building structures. Using simulations of representative building repairs under varied earthquake–flood scenarios, we identify key delay factors, such as financing constraints, that can dominate overall recovery durations even when secondary events occur months later. Our results demonstrate that accounting for multi‐hazard interactions yields exacerbated restoration times. This can inform adaptive policy measures that support efficient resource allocation. In this work, we show that incorporating sequence‐dependent recovery dynamics can aid decision-making for enhancing post‐disaster community resilience. Physical sciences/Engineering/Civil engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7238691","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":493847943,"identity":"e8b54baa-6428-4add-90b9-45382a7f2da7","order_by":0,"name":"Pouria kourehpaz","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA50lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACNjCZAMSMDxgYLMA8xgYitTAbMDBIkKaFTYIoLeYMbImPeffY5JmzH39WzVMjwcDffoBNcgYeLZYNbIeNeZ6lFVv2JKTd5jkmwSBxJoFNcgMeLQYH2NukeQ4cTtxwIOHYbd4GoMNuMLBJPiCs5X/ihvMP24pBWuQJa2E7BtRyIHHDjWQ2ZpAWA5AWfA6zbGZLNpxzIDlx54xnzJJzjknwGJ5JbLbE531z9jbDB28O2CVu509/+OFNjY2c3PHDB2/24HMYM4wBpXkIRqQBBmMUjIJRMApGAToAAAKXSJq3eMJiAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1080-7089","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pouria","middleName":"","lastName":"kourehpaz","suffix":""},{"id":493847944,"identity":"333cc20e-e49e-48b9-9b11-9e8f25ee7ec2","order_by":1,"name":"Carmine Galasso","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5445-4911","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carmine","middleName":"","lastName":"Galasso","suffix":""},{"id":493847945,"identity":"416795a3-b11c-4644-af29-ea327d5ee629","order_by":2,"name":"Carlos Molina Hutt","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carlos","middleName":"Molina","lastName":"Hutt","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-29 04:00:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7238691/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7238691/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88317247,"identity":"dc2c690c-d3a0-488f-b5bb-e6221fffce59","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-05 08:10:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3781708,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"2025CommsEngKourehpazetal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7238691/v1_covered_22589ff1-1f63-4068-8a94-c90a8898840b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Enhancing Resilience Through Recovery Modeling in Multi-Hazard Contexts","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7238691/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7238691/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Natural hazards striking in rapid succession impose compound disruptions on communities, extending recovery timelines and challenging resilience planning. 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