Food Inflation and Household Coping in Urban Ethiopia: The Role of Perceptions and Social Protection

Food Inflation and Household Coping in Urban Ethiopia: The Role of Perceptions and Social Protection | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Food Inflation and Household Coping in Urban Ethiopia: The Role of Perceptions and Social Protection Solomon Girma Yirdaw, Professor Messay Mulugeta Tefera, Professor Mogessie Ashenafi, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9108367/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rapid food inflation in Addis Ababa has eroded household purchasing power, intensifying urban food insecurity. While macroeconomic drivers are well documented, behavioral linkages between subjective price perceptions and coping remain less understood. This mixed-methods study (October-December 2024) surveyed 624 households across 11 sub-cities using stratified two-stage cluster sampling, complemented by interviews and focus groups. Ordered logistic regression examined inflation perceptions, while binary logistic regression modeled coping strategies. Results highlight entrenched vulnerabilities: 78.9% of households were female-headed, 89.3% classified as ultra-poor, and average household size was 3.6. Inflation memories were persistent (χ²=141.17; p < 0.001), with heightened vulnerability among female-headed (+ 11.2pp; p < 0.01) and unemployed households (95.8% “very high”; p < 0.001). Coping clustered into acute food adaptations (66.9%), non-essential expenditure cuts (32–36%), and declining substitutions (20.5% to 11.9%). Institutional buffers safety nets, health insurance, pensions partially reduced coping intensity, though fixed-income households remained fragile. Findings underscore how gender, unemployment, and paradoxical education effects exacerbate adaptive erosion. Policy responses require urban-centric measures: inflation-indexed safety nets and pensions, expanded health insurance, accessible credit, integration of informal systems (e.g., Idir), and transparent market monitoring to stabilize Ethiopia’s urban poor. Food Inflation Urban Food Security Coping Strategies Social Protection Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9108367","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":605305308,"identity":"ce463602-d2f1-48ef-aef2-fb7dd6af545d","order_by":0,"name":"Solomon Girma Yirdaw","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6klEQVRIie2SMQrCMBSGU4V2edD1CWKvEHFx6B28QlwyVXASN510UHGt4CF6hEhAlzoKhi5OuujeQcS0B2gzCuYjhH/4P94LhBCL5TdxBJlix/XmOtO+mSNIGvZ8EIWChoqz4MNdzIpsoAQDKSS40knU45LkYyT+csUqle6VMwkgmzSLJmqtF8P0nFQrMVAJKF2t8CtoheKoRtmmWimOSrl6mygBiXSfcWzF3jEzmkKRs8NehNSHyM3aFKH2LcFWHm6vD84W3umunu+w4y83NVMEIQ0oI9DyrqyXU+b6x+Rl9G61bYvFYvlPvvO5TFqWER0bAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6856-9964","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Solomon","middleName":"Girma","lastName":"Yirdaw","suffix":""},{"id":605305309,"identity":"8241cac1-dfb2-434d-8767-ea3b6c8759ed","order_by":1,"name":"Professor Messay Mulugeta Tefera","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Professor","middleName":"Messay Mulugeta","lastName":"Tefera","suffix":""},{"id":605305310,"identity":"96eb6f3f-4bba-48f6-8348-29471d87f12a","order_by":2,"name":"Professor Mogessie Ashenafi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Professor","middleName":"Mogessie","lastName":"Ashenafi","suffix":""},{"id":605305311,"identity":"3159f566-912a-4340-8cea-d9eaa9a227d8","order_by":3,"name":"Dr. Solomon Tsehay Feleke","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"Dr.","firstName":"Solomon","middleName":"Tsehay","lastName":"Feleke","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-12 21:34:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9108367/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9108367/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104815140,"identity":"71152604-7566-4948-b8a1-5f39581f9024","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-17 13:18:10","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":639792,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"urbanethiopiatheroleofperceptionssocialprotection.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9108367/v1_covered_f24c85cf-7c8c-45bb-ab00-3d17b3cb5f2c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFood Inflation and Household Coping in Urban Ethiopia: The Role of Perceptions and Social Protection\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Food Inflation, Urban Food Security, Coping Strategies, Social Protection","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9108367/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9108367/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRapid food inflation in Addis Ababa has eroded household purchasing power, intensifying urban food insecurity. While macroeconomic drivers are well documented, behavioral linkages between subjective price perceptions and coping remain less understood. This mixed-methods study (October-December 2024) surveyed 624 households across 11 sub-cities using stratified two-stage cluster sampling, complemented by interviews and focus groups. Ordered logistic regression examined inflation perceptions, while binary logistic regression modeled coping strategies. Results highlight entrenched vulnerabilities: 78.9% of households were female-headed, 89.3% classified as ultra-poor, and average household size was 3.6. Inflation memories were persistent (χ\u0026sup2;=141.17; p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001), with heightened vulnerability among female-headed (+\u0026thinsp;11.2pp; p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.01) and unemployed households (95.8% \u0026ldquo;very high\u0026rdquo;; p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001). Coping clustered into acute food adaptations (66.9%), non-essential expenditure cuts (32\u0026ndash;36%), and declining substitutions (20.5% to 11.9%). Institutional buffers safety nets, health insurance, pensions partially reduced coping intensity, though fixed-income households remained fragile. Findings underscore how gender, unemployment, and paradoxical education effects exacerbate adaptive erosion. Policy responses require urban-centric measures: inflation-indexed safety nets and pensions, expanded health insurance, accessible credit, integration of informal systems (e.g., Idir), and transparent market monitoring to stabilize Ethiopia\u0026rsquo;s urban poor.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Food Inflation and Household Coping in Urban Ethiopia: The Role of Perceptions and Social Protection","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-17 13:17:50","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9108367/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5647cf47-6975-43e6-8f05-27fc6147d85f","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 17th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-17T13:17:50+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-17 13:17:50","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9108367","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9108367","identity":"rs-9108367","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}