Historical Carbon Debts and Credits 1750-2023

Historical Carbon Debts and Credits 1750-2023 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article Historical Carbon Debts and Credits 1750-2023 Tobias Angel, Alain Naef This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8405651/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Historical contributions of carbon emissions differ widely between nations, constraining climate change negotiations. Cumulative country estimates ignore historical populations, overstating the role of large-population countries. In this paper, we present a global accounting framework. We quantify countries’ over and under-contributions to climate change through carbon debts and credits. We weight cumulative emissions by historical population and compare them to the historical global per capita average since 1750. This framework reveals asymmetries: In our baseline scenario (production-based CO2 emissions from fossil fuels) the United States alone holds 356.6 ± 36.5 Gt CO2 of carbon debt (42.8–52.6% of global debt), while China and India hold 397.8 ± 53.3 Gt CO2 of carbon credits (43.8–57.4% of global credit). Adding CO2 emissions from land use change radically reshapes the map, moving Brazil from the world’s 8th largest creditor to the 3rd largest debtor. Yet, it does not change the position of the US, China and India Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files suppNATUREsub.pdf Historical Carbon Debt and Credit 1750-2023: Supplementary Information (SI) Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8405651","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":563030859,"identity":"c1ec12c1-f2d6-4016-a82c-bb615f38f986","order_by":0,"name":"Tobias Angel","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4459-9754","institution":"Université Paris Cité","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tobias","middleName":"","lastName":"Angel","suffix":""},{"id":563030860,"identity":"9a6164c0-72a7-4ee9-b741-940f5781c1d7","order_by":1,"name":"Alain Naef","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"ESSEC Business School","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alain","middleName":"","lastName":"Naef","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-19 14:10:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8405651/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8405651/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100796393,"identity":"9104154c-d0d4-4aa7-80f7-ae3aaab3c9b1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-21 13:42:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2392320,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"manuscriptNATUREsub.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8405651/v1_covered_6710a18a-9f38-4953-b02c-e184efad7e98.pdf"},{"id":98740653,"identity":"79932415-4656-4ff4-a0fc-d11dff9dee22","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 07:37:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":11708507,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Historical Carbon Debt and Credit 1750-2023: Supplementary Information (SI)","description":"","filename":"suppNATUREsub.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8405651/v1/94925c31ecd4bec6d00df72d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Historical Carbon Debts and Credits 1750-2023","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8405651/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8405651/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Historical contributions of carbon emissions differ widely between nations, constraining climate change negotiations. 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