Determining the Sex-Specific Distributions of Average Daily Alcohol Consumption Using a Machine Learning Method: Is There a Separate Distribution for People With Alcohol Dependence?

Abstract BackgroundIt remains unclear whether alcohol use disorders (AUDs) can be characterized by specific levels of average daily alcohol consumption. The aim of the current study was to model the distributions of average daily alcohol consumption among those who consume alcohol and those with alcohol dependence, the most severe AUD, using various machine learning techniques. MethodsData from Wave 1 and Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions were used in the current analyses. Clustering algorithms were applied in order to group a set of data points that represent the average daily amount of alcohol consumed. Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) were then used to estimate the likelihood of a data point belonging to one of the mixture distributions. Individuals were assigned to the clusters which had the highest posterior probabilities from the GMMs, and their treatment utilization rate was examined for each of the clusters. ResultsModeling alcohol consumption via machine learning technique was feasible. The clusters identified did not point to alcohol dependence as a separate cluster characterized by a higher level of alcohol consumption. Among both females and males with alcohol dependence, daily alcohol consumption was relatively low. ConclusionsOverall, we found little evidence for clusters of people with the same drinking distribution, which could be characterized as clinically relevant for people with alcohol use disorders as currently defined.