Prioritizing the Welfare of Vulnerable Nations Promotes Equitable Achievement of Paris Target

Prioritizing the Welfare of Vulnerable Nations Promotes Equitable Achievement of Paris Target | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Prioritizing the Welfare of Vulnerable Nations Promotes Equitable Achievement of Paris Target Palok Biswas, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Jan Kwakkel, Giacomo Marangoni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6445667/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Equitable mitigation to limit warming to 2°C has been central to international climate negotiations and global action. Approximately half of the mitigation pathways in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report use Cost-benefit Integrated Assessment Models (CB-IAMs). These pathways are sensitive to normative assumptions ingrained in CB-IAMs and have been criticized for unfairly burdening developing nations. Here, we show that making normative assumptions explicit, separating conflicting policy objectives, and employing adaptive policies can substantially alter the prescribed global mitigation pathways and the underlying mitigation responsibility. Our findings show that ethical framing is pivotal. A utilitarian framing (maximizing global welfare) results in less ambitious mitigation, exceeding 2°C warming and unjustly distributing responsibilities. In contrast, a prioritarian framing (prioritizing the worst-off) prescribes pathways meeting Paris Agreement goals and ensuring equitable distribution of mitigation responsibility. Our approach integrates diverse ethical perspectives, facilitating informed deliberation and enabling stakeholders to achieve a negotiated compromise. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Ethics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files RegionalConfigurationJUSTICE.xlsx Supplementary Table S1 SupplementaryDocumentBiswasetal.pdf Supplementary Document for the Article Prioritizing the Welfare of Vulnerable Nations Promotes Equitable Achievement of Paris Target Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6445667","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":443237596,"identity":"621aea71-2dec-4bd1-90a9-162ecb1d15ac","order_by":0,"name":"Palok 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