Climate velocities and lagged species elevational shifts in mountain ranges

Climate velocities and lagged species elevational shifts in mountain ranges | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article Climate velocities and lagged species elevational shifts in mountain ranges Sheng-Feng Shen, Wei-Ping Chan, Hung-Chi Kuo, I-Ching Chen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-108322/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Mar, 2024 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Mountain ranges support concentrations of climate-endangered endemic species, and are potential refugia for species retreating from the lowlands under anthropogenic climate change. Predicting the outcome for biodiversity requires knowledge of whether species are shifting uphill at the same rate as temperature isotherms (i.e. whether they are successfully tracking the velocity of climatic changes)1. Here, we provide a global assessment of the velocity of climate change in mountain ranges: applying thermal dynamic theory, deriving moist adiabatic lapse rates (MALR) using local surface temperature and water vapor. MALR varied substantially around the world, from 3 to 9°C cooling per km elevation increase. Consider the rate of terrestrial surface warming from 1971 to 2015, 24 regions can be identified as exhibiting high velocities where the isotherms have shifted more than one standard deviation of the global mean value (> 8.45 m yr-1). High velocities are typically found in relatively dry parts of the world, but also occur in wet regions with low lapse rates, such as in Northern Sumatra, Western Guiana Shield, Northern Andes, Costa Rica, Nepal, and Madagascar. Analysis of biodiversity data in relation to mountain-specific velocities revealed more cases of tracking between species and isotherms than previously suggested2 and more likely occurred at lower climate velocity. Nevertheless, upslope migrations of montane species have generally been lagging behind climate velocity. Such lags could continue to effect change even if the climate were to stabilize immediately. Reducing emissions would be expected to minimize lags, as well as slow the velocities of warming and required responses everywhere. Climatology Climate Analysis and Modeling Ecological Modeling climate-endangered endemic species mountain rangers Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Mar, 2024 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-108322","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":8224910,"identity":"546892d7-144b-461f-b424-8dd59feb4b2b","order_by":0,"name":"Sheng-Feng Shen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRBhY8PAxsDYAGJCSMJa0tKQtTATpeUwnE9Yi/zs5mMPfySct+eTbm788IPBRnbDAf5jEvi0GNw5lm7Mk3A7sU3mYLNkD0Oa8YYDzGz4tUjkmEkz/ridwCaR2MbAw3A4EaTlBl6Hzcj/Jvkj4Zw9SAvjH4b/hLUw3Mhhk+BJOMDYBtTCzMNwgLAWgxtpZtI8CcmJQC3N0jIGycYzDzOb/8DvsORnQIfZ2cvPSH/48U2FnWzf8cbHBngdhmYpEBOKyVEwCkbBKBgFhAEAGedGgesEHAQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0631-6343","institution":"Academia Sinica","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sheng-Feng","middleName":"","lastName":"Shen","suffix":""},{"id":8224911,"identity":"c190119a-cda6-4e19-9c35-d0fca2527767","order_by":1,"name":"Wei-Ping Chan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Harvard University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wei-Ping","middleName":"","lastName":"Chan","suffix":""},{"id":8224912,"identity":"b2228abf-b75b-4ccc-b4de-5f7c7a68e20c","order_by":2,"name":"Hung-Chi Kuo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Taiwan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hung-Chi","middleName":"","lastName":"Kuo","suffix":""},{"id":8224913,"identity":"b0126248-170e-491f-8d10-2b6e87d8156f","order_by":3,"name":"I-Ching Chen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1909-7290","institution":"National Cheng Kung University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"I-Ching","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2020-11-14 03:55:30","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-108322/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-108322/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9","type":"published","date":"2024-03-27T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":5008492,"identity":"a20509fe-f8df-4563-b201-04df4a2e0732","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-01-15 21:02:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":112317,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The foundation of moist adiabatic lapse rate for assessing climate velocity in global mountains. (a) The nonlinear effect of surface temperature and water vapor on lapse rate. The mean surface temperature (b) and water vapor (c) and derived mean moist adiabatic lapse rates (2011-2015) in global mountains (d). Note: The designations employed and the presentation of the material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Research Square concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This map has been provided by the authors.","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-108322/v1/83d01ba612a7821e5bfaf9fd.jpg"},{"id":5008534,"identity":"a389acd5-1693-435c-bd7d-a150102b21a8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-01-15 21:05:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":248129,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The velocity of climate change in global mountains from 1971 to 2015. Terrestrial (a) and sea (b) surface temperature change (1971-1975 V.S. 2011-2015) and derived elevational climate velocities in mountains (c). (d) The high climate-velocity mountains are defined as where the isotherms have shifted more than one standard deviation of the global mean value (higher than 8.45 m yr-1). Note: The designations employed and the presentation of the material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Research Square concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This map has been provided by the authors.","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-108322/v1/5122615b5cc17ae2b1e35282.jpg"},{"id":5008622,"identity":"ac90a54f-8658-441e-9c2e-affad054d461","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-01-15 21:08:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":249435,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The velocity of climate change (1971-2015) in mountain islands (a, b, c) and along latitude-elevation gradients (d, e, f). Please see the Supplementary Method and Extended Data Fig. 3 for how to project a latitude-longitude map on a latitude-elevation map. Mountain summits are labeled for reference. Results that include the full 20th century (1901-2015) can be found in Supplementary Fig. 1 \u0026 2.","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-108322/v1/db4ce57ac6d7bc77ce609694.jpg"},{"id":5008536,"identity":"1ab0ca54-cb1d-4b50-ac87-6ff974bac9ad","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-01-15 21:05:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":298097,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The probability of tracking climate velocities for mountain species. (a) The diagram summarizing how the probability of tracking climate velocities was calculated (i =1000) (b) The diagonal diagram for observed range shifts for mountain species and corresponding climate velocities. Blue labels represent cases that species track climate successfully (color-coded under p = 0.05 threshold). (c-e) The different probabilities of species tracking climate velocity under different p thresholds. Only mean values are shown here. Panel c-e share the same color legend with panel b. For raw data points, please see Extended Data Fig. 9 for details.","description":"","filename":"4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-108322/v1/6aa6d2868bf19eb07f50c5e8.jpg"},{"id":13576108,"identity":"23422782-4fe6-4cee-a4a1-85e633122472","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 04:06:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2831904,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ClimatevelocitiesandlaggedspecieselevationalshiftsinmountainrangesNov2020plaintext.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-108322/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":5008729,"identity":"e2beb65f-d01b-4e04-aa94-34e505901839","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-01-15 21:11:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2947038,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ClimatevelocitiesandlaggedspecieselevationalshiftsinmountainrangesNov2020plaintext.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-108322/v1_stamped.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Climate velocities and lagged species elevational shifts in mountain ranges","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-108322/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":false,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"climate-endangered endemic species, mountain rangers","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-108322/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-108322/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Mountain ranges support concentrations of climate-endangered endemic species, and are potential refugia for species retreating from the lowlands under anthropogenic climate change. Predicting the outcome for biodiversity requires knowledge of whether species are shifting uphill at the same rate as temperature isotherms (i.e. whether they are successfully tracking the velocity of climatic changes)1. Here, we provide a global assessment of the velocity of climate change in mountain ranges: applying thermal dynamic theory, deriving moist adiabatic lapse rates (MALR) using local surface temperature and water vapor. MALR varied substantially around the world, from 3 to 9°C cooling per km elevation increase. Consider the rate of terrestrial surface warming from 1971 to 2015, 24 regions can be identified as exhibiting high velocities where the isotherms have shifted more than one standard deviation of the global mean value (\u003e 8.45 m yr-1). High velocities are typically found in relatively dry parts of the world, but also occur in wet regions with low lapse rates, such as in Northern Sumatra, Western Guiana Shield, Northern Andes, Costa Rica, Nepal, and Madagascar. Analysis of biodiversity data in relation to mountain-specific velocities revealed more cases of tracking between species and isotherms than previously suggested2 and more likely occurred at lower climate velocity. Nevertheless, upslope migrations of montane species have generally been lagging behind climate velocity. Such lags could continue to effect change even if the climate were to stabilize immediately. Reducing emissions would be expected to minimize lags, as well as slow the velocities of warming and required responses everywhere.","manuscriptTitle":"Climate velocities and lagged species elevational shifts in mountain ranges","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-01-15 21:02:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-108322/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":false,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nature","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature](http://www.nature.com/nature/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2c25bcaa-79df-4600-b730-1e6e13be21ed","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 15th, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":1913584,"name":"Climatology"},{"id":1913585,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"},{"id":1913586,"name":"Ecological Modeling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-03-28T07:08:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-108322","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9","journal":{"identity":"nature","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nature"},"publishedOn":"2024-03-27 04:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"March 27th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2021-01-15 21:02:23","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-108322","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-108322","identity":"rs-108322","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"FbvkV6FR0MCFSLy54lSbu","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}