Co-evolution and Adaptive Management of the Water-Sediment- Ecology-Socioeconomic Nexus under Climate-Socioeconomic Change

Co-evolution and Adaptive Management of the Water-Sediment- Ecology-Socioeconomic Nexus under Climate-Socioeconomic Change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Co-evolution and Adaptive Management of the Water-Sediment- Ecology-Socioeconomic Nexus under Climate-Socioeconomic Change Tianhao Zhang, Geng Niu, Qiliang Yang, Chunling Zhang, Tianchi Duan, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8816682/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the coupled interactions among water resources, sediment processes, ecological restoration, and socio-economic development is critical for sustainable river basin management under changing environments, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Ningxia reach of the Yellow River Basin represents a strongly human-impacted system in arid/semi-arid area, where water scarcity, intensive regulation, and ecological vulnerability coexist. In this study, we develop an integrated water-sediment-ecology-socioeconomic (WSES) nexus framework based on System Dynamics to investigate long-term co-evolutionary processes and policy trade-offs in this region. The model explicitly couples hydrological dynamics, sediment transport, ecological restoration measures, and socio-economic development, and is calibrated using long-term observational and statistical data. By combining afforestation and grassland restoration scenarios with SSPs-RCPs climate-socioeconomic pathways, we simulate system responses from 2010 to 2050. Results reveal pronounced nonlinear relationships and trade-offs between ecological benefits and water availability, identify threshold behaviors in water-sediment regulation, and demonstrate that high-emission pathways substantially amplify hydrological and environmental risks. Moderate ecological restoration under low-emission development pathways emerges as a more robust and adaptive strategy for balancing water security, sediment control, and economic growth. This WSES-oriented modeling framework moves nexus research beyond static coupling toward dynamic risk-informed decision support, offering a transferable approach for managing complex human-natural river systems under compounded climate and socio-economic uncertainty. Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Yellow River Basin Water-Sediment-Ecology-Socioeconomic (WSES) nexus System Dynamics Modeling Changing Environments SDGs Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 27 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 25 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 23 Feb, 2026 Editor invited by journal 18 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 16 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 12 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8816682","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":595978624,"identity":"71ab0aa4-6aff-41fe-83d1-95fe67e48780","order_by":0,"name":"Tianhao Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kunming University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tianhao","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":595978625,"identity":"e6753767-d44d-45dd-9b38-3077e7c904ba","order_by":1,"name":"Geng Niu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgglx8bAQ6IWYxK0QEFiA9FazNl5jF983FGb3ieRe+wDQ41NNEEtls08ZpYzzxzPbZPIS57BcCwtt4GQFoPDPGbGvG3Hctukc4wZGBsOE6nlb9uxdDZStBg/ZmyrSSBFC1sZY2/bAcM2+TfGDAlE+eX84c0ffrbVycv3nDFm+FBjQ1gLELBJMDAchjATiFAOAswfGBjqiFQ7CkbBKBgFIxIAAKjqOVurbqvkAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Geng","middleName":"","lastName":"Niu","suffix":""},{"id":595978626,"identity":"8db6e419-71c9-4abe-8853-a8b4a98b8939","order_by":2,"name":"Qiliang Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kunming University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qiliang","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":595978628,"identity":"67d9b231-ca38-4afa-a73b-393a2a6416a1","order_by":3,"name":"Chunling Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chunling","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":595978630,"identity":"ec721dde-6978-40ee-b9f7-d0c66952885b","order_by":4,"name":"Tianchi Duan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tianchi","middleName":"","lastName":"Duan","suffix":""},{"id":595978631,"identity":"2b95efec-7953-4425-a3cc-db87fbf26a8b","order_by":5,"name":"Qingping Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shenzhen academy of environmental sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qingping","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":595978634,"identity":"f6e3bf87-4b41-4338-bf8a-6a6b743419a1","order_by":6,"name":"Genfa Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Genfa","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":595978636,"identity":"ea5e403b-03ad-4053-870c-036c55b1f431","order_by":7,"name":"Dan Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kunming University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dan","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":595978637,"identity":"c7b3a0e6-b3f5-4c3c-9383-b9e760374f22","order_by":8,"name":"Siqi Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Westlake University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Siqi","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":595978641,"identity":"81a24bd4-b42f-4dab-887f-fa2ecf5c1cfa","order_by":9,"name":"Tian Cheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tian","middleName":"","lastName":"Cheng","suffix":""},{"id":595978645,"identity":"9e80d047-e7b3-4b40-bdbf-404b16081dd5","order_by":10,"name":"Xuefeng Sang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xuefeng","middleName":"","lastName":"Sang","suffix":""},{"id":595978647,"identity":"1a1a2c0c-f985-4f8c-b9df-e74f7194ae50","order_by":11,"name":"Yong Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yong","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-07 15:53:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8816682/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8816682/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105751690,"identity":"d067c99c-3166-4356-b5de-b47051603f0e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-30 15:36:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1678131,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptsubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8816682/v1_covered_bb5fc315-5c44-4398-899a-48f648fb7895.pdf"},{"id":103523075,"identity":"606952d7-6771-46fc-afc1-3802425b053d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-26 15:29:52","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":332648,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementarymaterial.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8816682/v1/72bd7dcb80f1b6cbe7bd16dd.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Co-evolution and Adaptive Management of the Water-Sediment- Ecology-Socioeconomic Nexus under Climate-Socioeconomic Change","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Yellow River Basin, Water-Sediment-Ecology-Socioeconomic (WSES) nexus, System Dynamics Modeling, Changing Environments, SDGs","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8816682/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8816682/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUnderstanding the coupled interactions among water resources, sediment processes, ecological restoration, and socio-economic development is critical for sustainable river basin management under changing environments, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Ningxia reach of the Yellow River Basin represents a strongly human-impacted system in arid/semi-arid area, where water scarcity, intensive regulation, and ecological vulnerability coexist. In this study, we develop an integrated water-sediment-ecology-socioeconomic (WSES) nexus framework based on System Dynamics to investigate long-term co-evolutionary processes and policy trade-offs in this region. The model explicitly couples hydrological dynamics, sediment transport, ecological restoration measures, and socio-economic development, and is calibrated using long-term observational and statistical data. By combining afforestation and grassland restoration scenarios with SSPs-RCPs climate-socioeconomic pathways, we simulate system responses from 2010 to 2050. Results reveal pronounced nonlinear relationships and trade-offs between ecological benefits and water availability, identify threshold behaviors in water-sediment regulation, and demonstrate that high-emission pathways substantially amplify hydrological and environmental risks. Moderate ecological restoration under low-emission development pathways emerges as a more robust and adaptive strategy for balancing water security, sediment control, and economic growth. This WSES-oriented modeling framework moves nexus research beyond static coupling toward dynamic risk-informed decision support, offering a transferable approach for managing complex human-natural river systems under compounded climate and socio-economic uncertainty.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Co-evolution and Adaptive Management of the Water-Sediment- Ecology-Socioeconomic Nexus under Climate-Socioeconomic Change","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-26 15:29:47","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8816682/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-27T11:26:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-27T05:20:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-25T15:42:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"118834916619266596173719341140952881311","date":"2026-03-16T13:24:38+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"207400221009107831197006222017197445733","date":"2026-03-16T13:20:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"234119946470410992038410318796708714985","date":"2026-03-16T08:26:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"53995117400075094292814746255738348587","date":"2026-03-03T05:49:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-24T02:03:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-18T14:03:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-16T13:35:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-02-13T04:29:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2026-02-13T04:23:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"096fb838-6612-4eb0-ae9d-b1f432abd971","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 26th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":63414272,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology"},{"id":63414273,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology"},{"id":63414274,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":63414275,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-30T16:24:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-26 15:29:47","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8816682","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8816682","identity":"rs-8816682","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}