From weather to system extremes - how much data is enough?

From weather to system extremes - how much data is enough? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article From weather to system extremes - how much data is enough? Tim Fürmann, Ebbe Gøtske, Parisa Rahdan, Aleksander Grochowicz, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7518804/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Extreme periods in highly renewable energy systems will be shaped as much by internal system interactions as by meteorological anomalies, yet most studies assess them in isolation. This gap is critical for sector-coupled systems, where cross-sector dynamics can trigger stress even under moderate weather conditions. Using six decades of simulations of a net-zero, sector-coupled networked European energy system, we evaluate different stress indicators comparing their ability to identify extreme events against their modeling requirements. System-aware indicators, such as Consumers Cost and Positive Residual Energy Demand, are computationally demanding but reproduce benchmark extremes, defined by Unmet Energy Demand, more consistently. Purely meteorological indicators (Wind Capacity Factors and Heading Demand) are easy to calculate but often highlight less relevant periods. Our classification of historic weather years supports efficient scenario selection and reveals how sector coupling fundamentally reshapes stress patterns. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy security Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Energy Meteorology Extreme Event Analysis Energy System Modeling PyPSA-Eur Sector-Coupling Energy Droughts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementary.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7518804","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":521259771,"identity":"31f54b3e-7677-4fda-bc45-e5028a62ab48","order_by":0,"name":"Tim Fürmann","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7312-0234","institution":"University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tim","middleName":"","lastName":"Fürmann","suffix":""},{"id":521259772,"identity":"6a95ce82-d78a-4eba-8e78-8b9eb452ecba","order_by":1,"name":"Ebbe Gøtske","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3371-2851","institution":"Imperial College London","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ebbe","middleName":"","lastName":"Gøtske","suffix":""},{"id":521259773,"identity":"187add4e-c4eb-47ea-81ac-8b2f2e9eebbb","order_by":2,"name":"Parisa Rahdan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Technical University of Denmark","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Parisa","middleName":"","lastName":"Rahdan","suffix":""},{"id":521259774,"identity":"148e52fb-075e-4c72-9a01-c9d9f125f4db","order_by":3,"name":"Aleksander Grochowicz","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1029-2858","institution":"Technical University of Denmark","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aleksander","middleName":"","lastName":"Grochowicz","suffix":""},{"id":521259775,"identity":"1b60f8f1-3a1f-4dd2-a26f-5d01245c549b","order_by":4,"name":"Mirko Schäfer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8029-949X","institution":"Universität Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mirko","middleName":"","lastName":"Schäfer","suffix":""},{"id":521259776,"identity":"e00cb88a-d4cb-4ca3-8af2-475214e03e41","order_by":5,"name":"Anke Weidlich","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2361-0912","institution":"University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anke","middleName":"","lastName":"Weidlich","suffix":""},{"id":521259777,"identity":"7a2288cf-bbb6-43bd-8775-805c758a9a90","order_by":6,"name":"Marta Victoria","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"DTU","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marta","middleName":"","lastName":"Victoria","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-02 14:31:03","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7518804/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7518804/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92388141,"identity":"cebd59d6-d55c-46fb-a44f-79f5cf762660","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 08:05:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":7425189,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7518804/v1/7e0e05bf6000a91dd4c8fe95.pdf"},{"id":92388139,"identity":"25bc1f75-c029-48e9-979d-b79d39589c8a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 08:05:15","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":8049,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NCOMMS2569780.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7518804/v1/0d4e27a053acd3a644a01fb0.json"},{"id":92388140,"identity":"967c33b6-326b-4f47-9915-474e0d6c6bca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 08:05:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":7930224,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"supplementary.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7518804/v1/b03782685d09e0ffd93876bd.pdf"},{"id":102295199,"identity":"db6c6b61-e42a-4aa5-a5ce-20e24a23e817","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-10 10:09:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":5590670,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7518804/v1_covered_306bac42-0610-4179-8e89-de0b119147b1.pdf"},{"id":92388142,"identity":"b4b3d922-6ea8-4b59-8407-aaa2a0209aea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-29 08:05:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":7930224,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"supplementary.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7518804/v1/70d9b8629807ae574b864f05.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"From weather to system extremes - how much data is enough?","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy Meteorology, Extreme Event Analysis, Energy System Modeling, PyPSA-Eur, Sector-Coupling, Energy Droughts","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7518804/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7518804/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Extreme periods in highly renewable energy systems will be shaped as much by internal system interactions as by meteorological anomalies, yet most studies assess them in isolation. This gap is critical for sector-coupled systems, where cross-sector dynamics can trigger stress even under moderate weather conditions. Using six decades of simulations of a net-zero, sector-coupled networked European energy system, we evaluate different stress indicators comparing their ability to identify extreme events against their modeling requirements. \r\nSystem-aware indicators, such as Consumers Cost and Positive Residual Energy Demand, are computationally demanding but reproduce benchmark extremes, defined by Unmet Energy Demand, more consistently. Purely meteorological indicators (Wind Capacity Factors and Heading Demand) are easy to calculate but often highlight less relevant periods. Our classification of historic weather years supports efficient scenario selection and reveals how sector coupling fundamentally reshapes stress patterns.","manuscriptTitle":"From weather to system extremes - how much data is enough?","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-29 08:05:11","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7518804/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9da80b4a-752d-469f-ace3-96bc060ed742","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":55413356,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling"},{"id":55413357,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy security"},{"id":55413358,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks"},{"id":55413359,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-05T19:41:18+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-29 08:05:11","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7518804","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7518804","identity":"rs-7518804","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}