Variability in Research Topics Driving Different Technological Trajectories

Variability is the predisposition of phenomena to assume different values over time. Variability is higher when the differences of cases from each other are larger or diverge from a specific value, such as arithmetic mean. This study focuses on the variability of research topics within and between research fields to explain, whenever possible, how the variability shapes the structure and dynamics of technological trajectories. Analysis of variability here applies the entropy and variance decomposition on main research fields in quantum technologies. Empirical evidence shows that variability in research topics is inversely proportional to the age of research fields. Inductive implications are that higher variability in research topics of recent scientific fields is due to uncertain dynamics that generates a heterogeneity of different technological trajectories some of them can growth and develop towards fruitful directions others can be dismissed. Hence the variability seems to be one of the drivers that shapes technological evolution and can provide policy and managerial implications to improve the scientific and technological forecasting that may support appropriate decisions of R&D investments towards promising research fields and technologies.