The impact of carbon emissions trading pilot on the carbon intensity of China's energy-intensive manufacturing industry

Abstract Promoting carbon reduction in energy-intensive manufacturing is the only way for China to achieve the goal of "dual carbon". This paper calculates the carbon emission intensity of five energy-intensive manufacturing industries in 30 provinces of China, takes China's pilot carbon emissions trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment to construct a DID model, and systematically examines the impact of carbon emissions trading pilot on the carbon intensity of energy-intensive manufacturing industries and its mechanism. The results show that the carbon emissions trading pilot significantly reduces the carbon emission intensity of the energy-intensive manufacturing industry in the pilot provinces, and plays a positive role in promoting the low-carbon transition of the energy-intensive manufacturing industry. This conclusion is valid under various robustness tests. From the perspective of action mechanism, under the influence of carbon emissions trading pilot, the energy-intensive manufacturing industries in the pilot areas did not reduce carbon emissions by reducing production, but achieved carbon reduction targets by improving the level of green technology innovation. In addition, the impact of carbon emissions trading pilot on the carbon intensity of energy-intensive manufacturing industry is significantly heterogeneous due to different geographical locations and industry types. The impact of carbon trading policies on carbon reduction in energy-intensive manufacturing is more significant in eastern and central China, The pilot carbon trading policy mainly promoted the reduction of carbon emission intensity in three industries: chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. The conclusions of this study provide important policy implications for giving full play to the carbon reduction effect of carbon emissions trading policies and promoting the low-carbon transformation of energy-intensive manufacturing industries.