Trends in Road Accidents on Brazil’s Highways: Evidence of Persistence

This paper deals with the analysis of trends in road accidents on major highways in Brazil. Using updated time series techniques, our results indicate that a low degree of long memory was detected in the series with shocks having transitory effects over time. We further find that the number of accidents taking place in Brazil has been reducing over time, though in the presence of negative shocks, the recovery is not going to be immediate due to the long memory nature of the data. Despite the absence of relevant investment relating to infrastructure expansion, it is worth mentioning the consolidation of a nationwide tolled road system in Brazil involving concessions to private administrators, alongside more severe traffic laws that can impose limitations on driving licences.