A Scalable Framework for Identifying Allelic Series from Summary Statistics

Genes for which a dose-response relationship exists between mutational severity and phenotypic impact make for logical therapeutic targets, as the effects of pharmacological modulation can be anticipated from the natural variation present in a population. We refer to genes where such a dose-response relationship exists as harboring allelic series, and have introduced the rare coding-variant allelic series test (COAST) for their identification. The original COAST required access to individual-level data. However, such data are often unavailable due to privacy concerns or logistical challenges. Meanwhile, single-variant summary statistics of the type produced by genome-wide association studies are plentiful. Here we introduce COAST-SS, an extension of COAST that accepts summary statistics as input, namely the per-variant effect sizes and standard errors, along with estimates of the minor allele frequency and local linkage disequilibrium (LD). As a running example, we consider identifying allelic series for circulating lipid traits, drawing on data from the UK Biobank, Million Veterans Program, and Trans-Omics of Precision Medicine Program. Through extensive analyses of real and simulated data, we demonstrate that COAST-SS provides p-values effectively equivalent to those from the original COAST. Interestingly, we find that when LD is low, as is expected among rare variants, COAST-SS is robust to misspecification of the LD matrix, providing valid inference even when the LD matrix is set to the identity matrix. We explore several strategies for annotating the pathogenicity of variants supplied to COAST-SS, finding that they often yield similar power for detecting candidate allelic series. Lastly, we employ COAST-SS to screen for lipid trait allelic series in a meta-analyzed cohort of up to 840K subjects. COAST-SS has been incorporated into the publicly available AllelicSeries R package.