The Impact of Vaccinations and Chronic Disease on COVID Death Rates

This study presents a theoretical and empirical regression model to measure the efficacy of vaccinations in reducing COVID death rates across states over the 3/10/21 to 12/28/22 period. During that period, it was estimated that the availability of vaccinations resulted in a reduction of 427,000 COVID deaths in the nation. To arrive at that estimate, other covariants were held constant. In particular, it was found that chronic disease should be included as an explanatory variable to arrive at unbiased measures of the efficacy of vaccinations in reducing deaths. In addition, the percentage of people over the age of 65 was found to be highly significant. The only ethnic/racial characteristic that was significant in explaining COVID deaths was the percentage of American Indians/Alaska Natives residing in a state. Other ethnic/racial characteristics, as well as variables representing population, density, governmental stringency, and income, were not significant over the period tested. Finally, cumulative prior death and case rates tested were not significant in influencing COVID death rates during the period tested in this study.