Integrated Vulnerability and Hazard Assessment of Shoreline Change Using LRRDS Simulation Models: A Case Study of Ghashm Island’s Coastal Morphology and Historical Shoreline Dynamics Maps

Integrated Vulnerability and Hazard Assessment of Shoreline Change Using LRRDS Simulation Models: A Case Study of Ghashm Island’s Coastal Morphology and Historical Shoreline Dynamics Maps | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Integrated Vulnerability and Hazard Assessment of Shoreline Change Using LRRDS Simulation Models: A Case Study of Ghashm Island’s Coastal Morphology and Historical Shoreline Dynamics Maps Abbass Moradi, Milad Bagheri, Zelina Z Ibrahim, Mohamad Fadzil, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8805868/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Shoreline locations are continuously altered by both natural processes and human activities, and these changes provide critical information for Coastal City Hazard Assessment (CCHA), including the evaluation of coastal erosion and accretion. Along the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, shoreline recession driven by coastal erosion poses a persistent challenge, exacerbated by limited historical data, which introduces uncertainty into sustainable coastal development planning. In particular, the absence of established setback lines has contributed to damage to coastal structures and ecosystems. This study utilized multi-source shoreline datasets, including aerial photographs, high-resolution satellite imagery, geologic maps, and GPS survey data spanning 1956–2009. A combination of geomorphological, statistical, and cartographic methods was applied to generate segment-based shoreline change data, dynamic shoreline maps, and quantitative analyses of change rates. Results demonstrated that the selection of appropriate geomorphic indicators was strongly influenced by local and regional geomorphology. Sandy beaches exhibited the highest erosion, with an average recession rate of − 0.72 m/yr, while coastal cliffs retreated at − 0.33 m/yr, yielding an overall shoreline recession rate of − 0.51 m/yr. Approximately 40% of the shoreline was classified as experiencing high to very high recession rates. Recession rates were used to delineate beach erosion setback lines and map coastal erosion hazard zones. A novel Linear Regression Rate combined with Dynamic Segmentation (LRRDS) model was developed to predict future shoreline positions and inform setback planning. This study presents a structured, morphology-sensitive approach for assessing shoreline change, providing precise mapping, measurement, and analysis. Implementing erosion-based setback lines can assist coastal managers in mitigating vulnerabilities and supporting sustainable coastal development. Shoreline change analysis Coastal city geomorphology LRRDS model GIS Historical data Hazard assessment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8805868","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":594858059,"identity":"888a9264-b64e-4215-86c9-7fdb770f9c07","order_by":0,"name":"Abbass Moradi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universiti of Hormozgan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abbass","middleName":"","lastName":"Moradi","suffix":""},{"id":594858060,"identity":"64cbf79f-a84e-48e6-9b46-ce9441e8f9ec","order_by":1,"name":"Milad Bagheri","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Milad","middleName":"","lastName":"Bagheri","suffix":""},{"id":594858061,"identity":"df7ba43a-b588-4c2d-9dd7-06d476c1915b","order_by":2,"name":"Zelina Z Ibrahim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universiti Putra Malaysia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zelina","middleName":"Z","lastName":"Ibrahim","suffix":""},{"id":594858062,"identity":"9294d73e-21f8-4ecb-b804-b8cd1ec6926d","order_by":3,"name":"Mohamad Fadzil","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universiti Malaysia Terengganu","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohamad","middleName":"","lastName":"Fadzil","suffix":""},{"id":594858063,"identity":"70d84278-ac0e-4b99-830c-8424c0f6c912","order_by":4,"name":"Wan Izatul Asma Wan Talaat","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universiti Malaysia Terengganu","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wan","middleName":"Izatul Asma Wan","lastName":"Talaat","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-06 10:40:02","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8805868/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8805868/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103506661,"identity":"61b7b344-f66d-44b8-9720-7da7fcccc17e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-26 13:38:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1913123,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"11Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8805868/v1_covered_bfbec6c6-cad5-464b-9213-92a234105e05.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Integrated Vulnerability and Hazard Assessment of Shoreline Change Using LRRDS Simulation Models: A Case Study of Ghashm Island’s Coastal Morphology and Historical Shoreline Dynamics Maps","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Shoreline change analysis, Coastal city geomorphology, LRRDS model, GIS, Historical data, Hazard assessment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8805868/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8805868/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eShoreline locations are continuously altered by both natural processes and human activities, and these changes provide critical information for Coastal City Hazard Assessment (CCHA), including the evaluation of coastal erosion and accretion. Along the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, shoreline recession driven by coastal erosion poses a persistent challenge, exacerbated by limited historical data, which introduces uncertainty into sustainable coastal development planning. In particular, the absence of established setback lines has contributed to damage to coastal structures and ecosystems. This study utilized multi-source shoreline datasets, including aerial photographs, high-resolution satellite imagery, geologic maps, and GPS survey data spanning 1956\u0026ndash;2009. A combination of geomorphological, statistical, and cartographic methods was applied to generate segment-based shoreline change data, dynamic shoreline maps, and quantitative analyses of change rates. Results demonstrated that the selection of appropriate geomorphic indicators was strongly influenced by local and regional geomorphology. Sandy beaches exhibited the highest erosion, with an average recession rate of \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.72 m/yr, while coastal cliffs retreated at \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.33 m/yr, yielding an overall shoreline recession rate of \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.51 m/yr. Approximately 40% of the shoreline was classified as experiencing high to very high recession rates. Recession rates were used to delineate beach erosion setback lines and map coastal erosion hazard zones. A novel Linear Regression Rate combined with Dynamic Segmentation (LRRDS) model was developed to predict future shoreline positions and inform setback planning. This study presents a structured, morphology-sensitive approach for assessing shoreline change, providing precise mapping, measurement, and analysis. Implementing erosion-based setback lines can assist coastal managers in mitigating vulnerabilities and supporting sustainable coastal development.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Integrated Vulnerability and Hazard Assessment of Shoreline Change Using LRRDS Simulation Models: A Case Study of Ghashm Island’s Coastal Morphology and Historical Shoreline Dynamics Maps","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-24 06:19:37","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8805868/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4a107109-d2bd-470d-b886-5c204f6c4d10","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 24th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-24T06:19:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-24 06:19:37","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8805868","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8805868","identity":"rs-8805868","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}