A Proposed Heuristic for Guessing Distributions

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Abstract

How can a layman choose the least biased hypothetical distribution for approximating a real distribution? In this paper, we propose a simple rule of thumb for addressing this challenge. This rule of thumb involves choosing the distribution that maximizes the entropy under the constraint of rank order. For explaining this rule of thumb and its justification, we first show that “guesstimating” a real-world distribution is possible by using the “True Median”.

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europepmc
last seen: 2026-05-19T01:45:01.086888+00:00