Complex Scenarios with Competing Factors - A Conception Paper Applied to the COVID-19 Case

Abstract A model to analyze complex systems facing threats with competing factors has been introduced. The Principle of Energy, in integral form, is used to conceive a theory in which competing factors dispute available resources to minimize undesirable outcomes. The general result indicates that the minimum response is obtained by a combination of the factors weighted by their corresponding criticalities. The theory has been applied to the case of the COVID-19 pandemic with two competing factors: Health and Economy. As result, to minimize the grand total number of deaths, the best recommendation is to balance the emphasis on both factors. The model can be generalized even further and may evolve from a qualitative to a quantitative status. In this evolution, it may allow for computational simulations and comparisons with field statistics for validation and forecasting. As such, this approach may become a useful tool for decision-making regarding resources allocations in order to reduce guessing in scenarios full of uncertainties.