The hidden demography of the 21st century global forest carbon sink

The hidden demography of the 21st century global forest carbon sink | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article The hidden demography of the 21st century global forest carbon sink Jingjing Liang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8515526/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Forests play a central role in the global carbon cycle, yet most assessments quantify only net carbon balance, obscuring the demographic processes that govern long-term forest carbon dynamics1-3, and reinforcing a prevailing paradigm that tropical forests dominate the global land carbon sink2-6. Here we assemble and harmonize approximately one million remeasured permanent forest plots to establish the first global, observation-based benchmark of intrinsic forest carbon turnover, decomposing net aboveground biomass change (2.23 Pg C yr⁻¹) into growth (7.74 Pg C yr⁻¹), recruitment (2.11 Pg C yr⁻¹), and mortality (-7.62 Pg C yr⁻¹). Across major tropical ecozones, intrinsic net change is near zero despite high growth rates, because mortality closely tracks growth, whereas temperate oceanic forests exhibit the largest net gains globally. Size-structured analyses further reveal that global forest carbon dynamics are dominated by demographic fluxes in small to intermediate size classes rather than by the largest trees. Although large trees store substantial biomass individually, their relatively low abundance limits their contribution to ecosystem-scale fluxes. Together, these results contribute a demographically explicit evaluation of fundamental hypotheses regarding tropical dominance, the role of large trees, and the relative importance of growth, regeneration, and mortality in shaping forest biomass dynamics. Biological sciences/Ecology/Forest ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Population dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files MovieS1dAGB20002025.gif Movie S1 MovieS2Growth20012025.gif Movie S2 MovieS3Recruitment20012025.gif Movie S3 MovieS4Mortality20012025.gif Movie S4 DataS1AGBEquations.docx Extended Data 1 DataS2IPCC0415.docx Extended Data 2 SupplementaryInformation.docx SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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