Predicting the likelihood of a live birth for women with endometriosis-related infertility

L. Benoit, Louise Benoit, Boujenah J, J. Boujenah, C. Poncelet, Poncelet C, M Grynberg, Grynberg M, Michaël Grynberg, Lionel Carbillon, Carbillon L, L Carbillon, Nyangoh Timoh K, K Nyangoh Timoh, Krystel Nyangoh Timoh, S Touleimat, Touleimat S, Salma Touleimat, Emmanuelle Mathieu d’Argent, Mathieu d'Argent E, Emmanuelle Mathieu d'Argent, Aude Jayot, Jayot A, Owen C, C. A. Owen, Clémentine Owen, V Lavoue, Vincent Lavoué, Roman H, Horace Roman, H. Roman, Darai E, E Darai, Sofiane Bendifallah, Bendifallah S, S. Bendifallah
European journal of obstetrics, gynecology, and reproductive biology · 2019 · vol. 242 , pp. 56–62 · doi:10.1016/j.ejogrb.2019.09.011 · PMID:31563819 · W2974252075
article OA: bronze CC0 ⤵ 8 in-corpus citations
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⚙ AI-generated summary by claude@2026-06, 2026-06-08 ⓘ

This study developed a predictive model to estimate the probability of live birth for women experiencing infertility due to endometriosis.

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Abstract

ObjectiveEndometriosis affects 10% of women in reproductive age and alters fertility. Its management is still debated notably the timing of surgery and ART in infertility. Several tools have been created to guide the practitioner and the couple yet many limitations persist. The objective is to create a nomogram to predict the likelihood of a live birth after surgery followed by assisted reproductive technology (ART) for patients with endometriosis-related infertility.Study designAll women in a public university hospital who attempted to conceive by ART after surgery for endometriosis-related infertility from 2004 to 2016 were included. We created a model using multivariable linear regression based on a retrospective database.ResultOf the 297 women included, 171 (57.6%) obtained a live birth. Age, duration of infertility, number of ICSI-IVF cycles, ovarian reserve and the revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) score were included in the nomogram. The predictive model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.79) and was well calibrated. The external validation of the model was achieved with an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73) and calibration was good. The staging accuracy according to AUC criteria for the nomogram compared to the currently used Endometriosis Infertility Index to predict live births were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.79) and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.57-0.63), respectively.ConclusionThis simple tool appears to accurately predict the likelihood of a live birth for a patient undergoing ART after surgery for endometriosis-related infertility. It could be used to counsel patients in their choice between spontaneous versus ART conception, or oocyte donation.

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Condition tags

endometriosisinfertility

MeSH descriptors

Endometriosis Infertility, Female Live Birth Nomograms Adult Endometriosis Female Humans Infertility, Female Pregnancy

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