Risk, predictive factors and Nomogram of liver metastatic gastroesophageal junction cancer: A new study based on SEER Database

Purpose: of the study: Liver metastases were common in gastroesophageal junction cancer (GEJ) patients with poor prognosis. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, the present study investigated the incidence, risk, and prognostic factors of liver metastases in GEJ patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 from the SEER database. Study design: The univariable and multivariable logistic and Cox regression models were used to investigate the risk factors for liver metastase development and prognosis, respectively. The liver metastases predicting nomograms were constructed, evaluated. The overall survival (OS) of patients with liver metastases was analyzed by the Kaplan–Meier method. Results Finally, a total of 8,197 eligible GEJ cancer patients were included and 1,558 of them were diagnosed with liver metastases. The median survival of the liver metastatic GEJ cancer patients was about 5 months. Age, TN stage, surgery, radiation, and regional lymph node dissection were significantly associated with liver metastases occurrence. The calibration curve and C-index exhibited good performance of the nomograms for predicting GEJ cancer patients. Conclusions The nomograms were expected to be effective tools for predicting the risk of liver metastases for GEJ cancer patients which may benefit clinical decision-making. Word Count: Liver metastases in GEJ tumors may remain asymptomatic in the early stages. Timely recognition of these symptoms is vital for early intervention. The three-year prognosis for gastroesophageal junction cancer with liver metastasis is unfavorable, and the associated risks warrant further investigation. In this study, our risk and prognosis model for predicting GEJ tumors with liver metastasis is anticipated to serve as an effective tool.