Mask Mandate’s Effect on Job Loss Expectation and Mental Health in the United States during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Uncertainty around economic recovery from a pandemic, in addition to restrictions on mobility and socializing, can be isolating and stressful. While preventive measures, such as mask mandates, are expected to mitigate spread of the disease and lower concerns of future job loss, state- and local-level mandates could signal that infection rates are worse in the mandated areas and decrease consumer confidence and mobility. Thus, the association between mask mandates and psychological well-being is unclear. Twenty-five states in the United States implemented statewide mask mandates early in the pandemic. This study seeks to examine the effect of mask mandates on self-reported job loss expectation and mental health, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey data, collected between April 23rd and July 21st, 2020. In the individual-level panel data, job loss expectation was lower by 1.1 percentage point by the second week of a statewide mask mandate and by 1.6 percentage point by the third week, compared to average job loss expectation in states without a mask mandate and to the mandate states before the policy implementation. Average job loss expectation was 6.5 percentage point lower by the twelfth week in the five states that were the first to implement statewide mask mandates. Mental health status improved steadily from the fourth week on in states with a mask mandate. Analysis of state-aggregated data indicates considerable variability and lack of uniformity in mask mandates’ impact on job loss expectation and mental health status.