Climate Model Ensembles to Evaluate the Impact of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Different Dry-Season Rice Varieties Cultivated under Conventional and Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) Conditions

Climate Model Ensembles to Evaluate the Impact of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Different Dry-Season Rice Varieties Cultivated under Conventional and Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) Conditions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate Model Ensembles to Evaluate the Impact of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Different Dry-Season Rice Varieties Cultivated under Conventional and Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) Conditions Chan Arun Phoeurn, Aurore Degré, Chantha Oeurng, Pinnara Ket This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4136462/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To address water scarcity, enhancing water use efficiency, especially for dry-season rice cultivation, is crucial, especially in the context of climate change. Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) irrigation has been effective in conserving water in various regions. However, there is a lack of research on the feasibility of AWD as a potential technique for climate adaptation. This is the first-ever attempt to utilize the AquaCrop model in evaluating the effects of climate change on different rice varieties cultivated under AWD irrigation, employing climate model ensembles for the mid-century period (2041–2070) based on the most recent emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Field experiments were conducted in 2023 to get the input for calibrating and validating the AquaCrop. We adopted SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 to represent medium and highest greenhouse gas emissions. For each scenario, we applied 4 different GCMs. The ensemble-model projection indicated that rice grown longer than 94 DAT is more prone to damage in the future. The ensemble-model projection indicated that rice grown longer than 94 DAT is more prone to damage in the future. In our case, grain yields of CAR15 and Sen Kra Ob were reduced and more than 60–70% of these two varieties were damaged under SSP3-7.0 scenarios, and between 33% − 50% were damaged under SSP5-8.5. OM5451 and Sen Pidor are the suitable varieties selected to adapt to climate change. In terms of WUE, AWD is a promising technique to save water in the future. Alternate wetting and drying rice variety water use efficiency dry-season rice climate-model ensembles crop model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarydocument.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4136462","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":283323330,"identity":"332629fd-eb68-4f67-9a14-ad11b37e706a","order_by":0,"name":"Chan Arun Phoeurn","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRiDvbEBRDE2MLCxEamF5yBYDylaJBIYidPCP7v52QOGmnuJ2yUftz/4wWAju+EAW9oDvJbcOWZuwHCsOHHn7MTGxh6GNGOgluMG+LQYSCSYSTCwJSRuuJ3Y2MzAcDhxwwH2Ngn8WtK/STD8A2q5eRCk5T8xWnLMJBjbgFpuMIK0HABqYTuGV4vEjZwyicS+BOMNZxIbZ/YYJBvPPMyWhlcL/4z0bRIfviXIbjh+/MGHHxV2sn3H28zwagGDBIQ7gZiZoPpRMApGwSgYBYQAAGAOTHJ3gpccAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Technology of Cambodia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chan","middleName":"Arun","lastName":"Phoeurn","suffix":""},{"id":283323331,"identity":"24079ed3-4bfa-46b1-8be7-5dbe37176163","order_by":1,"name":"Aurore Degré","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Liège","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aurore","middleName":"","lastName":"Degré","suffix":""},{"id":283323332,"identity":"9ce85288-8e84-4732-8b42-39ce3c302c9c","order_by":2,"name":"Chantha Oeurng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Technology of Cambodia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chantha","middleName":"","lastName":"Oeurng","suffix":""},{"id":283323333,"identity":"57d25ed3-3b51-4c88-8525-807aff2b2fa6","order_by":3,"name":"Pinnara Ket","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Technology of Cambodia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pinnara","middleName":"","lastName":"Ket","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-20 10:50:21","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4136462/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4136462/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55452227,"identity":"acc1dc5e-5777-412a-95c4-ee692f097e03","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-28 08:01:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":811631,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"paper2readyforsubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4136462/v1_covered_08cab057-e7c0-43fe-b736-d988368f57f5.pdf"},{"id":53427374,"identity":"99e87a61-df8c-41aa-8bd4-50f1631dce9f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-25 21:06:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":333554,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementarydocument.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4136462/v1/ec3d4852d4b5d3083f912352.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Climate Model Ensembles to Evaluate the Impact of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Different Dry-Season Rice Varieties Cultivated under Conventional and Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) Conditions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Alternate wetting and drying, rice variety, water use efficiency, dry-season rice, climate-model ensembles, crop model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4136462/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4136462/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTo address water scarcity, enhancing water use efficiency, especially for dry-season rice cultivation, is crucial, especially in the context of climate change. Alternative Wetting and Drying (AWD) irrigation has been effective in conserving water in various regions. However, there is a lack of research on the feasibility of AWD as a potential technique for climate adaptation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis is the first-ever attempt to utilize the AquaCrop model in evaluating the effects of climate change on different rice varieties cultivated under AWD irrigation, employing climate model ensembles for the mid-century period (2041\u0026ndash;2070) based on the most recent emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Field experiments were conducted in 2023 to get the input for calibrating and validating the AquaCrop. We adopted SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 to represent medium and highest greenhouse gas emissions. For each scenario, we applied 4 different GCMs.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe ensemble-model projection indicated that rice grown longer than 94 DAT is more prone to damage in the future. The ensemble-model projection indicated that rice grown longer than 94 DAT is more prone to damage in the future. In our case, grain yields of CAR15 and Sen Kra Ob were reduced and more than 60\u0026ndash;70% of these two varieties were damaged under SSP3-7.0 scenarios, and between 33% \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;50% were damaged under SSP5-8.5. OM5451 and Sen Pidor are the suitable varieties selected to adapt to climate change. 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