Ambiguity Aversion and Citizen Expectations of Government Response to UAP Reports

Ambiguity Aversion and Citizen Expectations of Government Response to UAP Reports | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Ambiguity Aversion and Citizen Expectations of Government Response to UAP Reports Maryam Dilmaghani This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8996466/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) have entered formal governmental discourse in Canada, creating a policy environment characterized by institutional acknowledgment without definitive explanation. Such contexts generate ambiguity rather than measurable risk. This paper examines whether variation in ambiguity aversion predicts public expectations of government response to UAP reports. Using data from the 2025 Sky Canada Project (N = 1,008), the analysis constructs an Ambiguity Averse Epistemic Orientation (AAEO) index based on concern, security framing, and intolerance of sustained epistemic indeterminacy. Results indicate that higher ambiguity aversion is strongly associated with support for government action and public funding for investigation, even after controlling for issue salience and demographic characteristics. Disclosure expectations are also positively related to ambiguity aversion but are more sensitive to attention and engagement. A composite index of government involvement performs weakly, suggesting that public expectations are multidimensional rather than unidimensional. The findings extend ambiguity aversion theory beyond laboratory settings and demonstrate its relevance for understanding public demand for institutional escalation under acknowledged indeterminacy. UAP Public Opinion Ambiguity Aversion Government Transparency Canada Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Table 1 to 5 are available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files 2Paper2Tables.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8996466","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":600137484,"identity":"9272f27a-47dc-4375-a245-d247d238a46e","order_by":0,"name":"Maryam Dilmaghani","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBADxjZ2ENnAwMDG3kCsFmaYFp4DRGppgGlhkEjAr1S3/ewziZ85DLJ9zNyJH7/usMvjk3z+dDMPg508Li1mZ9LNJHu3MRi3MfNulpY9k1zMJp1jdpuHIdmwAZeWA2lsErzbGBKBWjZIS7YxJ7ZJ57ABtRxgxKnl/DM2yb8QLZt/S7bVJ7ZJHn8G0mKPU8uNNDZpqC3bJD+2HU5sk2AAOexAIm4tz5itZbdJgPyyzZqx7XhiG0+O2c05BsnJuB2Wxnjz7TYb2fntvZtv/myrTpzffvzZjTcVdra4tAABiwQwLsAsZh64oAFu9SCFH2Asxh94FY6CUTAKRsFIBQDykVUrjSp4QgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Saint Mary’s University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maryam","middleName":"","lastName":"Dilmaghani","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-28 15:24:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8996466/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8996466/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108720438,"identity":"aa622179-a95d-405a-a417-4e54a00a4070","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-07 15:56:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":432093,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"1AAEOFeb26.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8996466/v1_covered_ee9a4f30-fca7-4ee6-b208-75965b6ea3b9.pdf"},{"id":104040154,"identity":"8fc4bd39-4bdf-4704-9743-72967570bdba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-06 04:17:17","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":55294,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"2Paper2Tables.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8996466/v1/5c573d1252067f937de37a26.docx"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eNo competing interests reported.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1 to 5 are available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"Ambiguity Aversion and Citizen Expectations of Government Response to UAP Reports","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"UAP, Public Opinion, Ambiguity Aversion, Government Transparency, Canada","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8996466/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8996466/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) have entered formal governmental discourse in Canada, creating a policy environment characterized by institutional acknowledgment without definitive explanation. Such contexts generate ambiguity rather than measurable risk. This paper examines whether variation in ambiguity aversion predicts public expectations of government response to UAP reports. Using data from the 2025 Sky Canada Project (N = 1,008), the analysis constructs an Ambiguity Averse Epistemic Orientation (AAEO) index based on concern, security framing, and intolerance of sustained epistemic indeterminacy. Results indicate that higher ambiguity aversion is strongly associated with support for government action and public funding for investigation, even after controlling for issue salience and demographic characteristics. Disclosure expectations are also positively related to ambiguity aversion but are more sensitive to attention and engagement. A composite index of government involvement performs weakly, suggesting that public expectations are multidimensional rather than unidimensional. The findings extend ambiguity aversion theory beyond laboratory settings and demonstrate its relevance for understanding public demand for institutional escalation under acknowledged indeterminacy.","manuscriptTitle":"Ambiguity Aversion and Citizen Expectations of Government Response to UAP Reports","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-06 04:17:12","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8996466/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"48623cb4-4b45-4ade-a616-0922711cf248","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 6th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Rejected","date":"2026-05-07T15:46:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-07T14:05:11+00:00","index":26,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-07T15:56:09+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-06 04:17:12","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8996466","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8996466","identity":"rs-8996466","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}