Mapping Urban Water Stress and Human-Water Conflicts: A Climate-Ecosystem Framework for Sustainable Water Management

Mapping Urban Water Stress and Human-Water Conflicts: A Climate-Ecosystem Framework for Sustainable Water Management | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mapping Urban Water Stress and Human-Water Conflicts: A Climate-Ecosystem Framework for Sustainable Water Management Fatima Zahra Kherazi, Dongying Sun, Jan Muhammad Sohu, Charafa El Rhadiouini, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7727904/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Water Resources Management → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban water stress is emerging as a critical challenge in rapidly developing regions where climate variability, population growth, and land-use change converge. Conventional indices largely emphasize hydrological supply or climatic drought but often neglect urban expansion, ecological resilience, and human exposure. To address this gap, we develop a Dynamic Urban–Ecosystem Water Stress Index (UEWSI) and apply it to Hunan Province, China (2000–2023) to support integrated water resources assessment and management. The framework combines net water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), potential evapotranspiration, and impervious surface growth, further refined by a flood susceptibility index to establish an Urban Water Stress Classification (UWSC). Overlaying UWSC with population density enables the identification of human–water conflict hotspots, where hydrological stress and demographic concentration intersect, providing a spatial basis for prioritizing management interventions. Results indicate that water stress is primarily driven by increasing climatic demand (PET, r > 0.9), urban impervious expansion (r ≈ 0.86), and population density (r ≈ 0.85), while precipitation plays a weaker role. Eco-hydrological regime zoning through ET/PET clustering revealed stable, transitional, and stressed ecosystems, while analysis of impervious–biodiversity linkages highlights ecological trade-offs relevant for urban water conservation planning. By integrating climatic, hydrological, urban, and ecological dimensions, this study advances socio-hydrological research and delivers a decision-support framework for diagnosing stress hotspots, anticipating regime shifts, and guiding sustainable urban water resources planning and governance. Urban water stress Human–water conflict Climate-ecosystem interactions Eco-hydrological regimes Water resources management Sustainable governance Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Water Resources Management → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revisions 05 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 02 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 29 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 28 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7727904","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":523826817,"identity":"39a81c8e-2940-4c56-a26e-f5bf18195af9","order_by":0,"name":"Fatima Zahra 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Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Urban water stress, Human–water conflict, Climate-ecosystem interactions, Eco-hydrological regimes, Water resources management, Sustainable governance","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7727904/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7727904/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUrban water stress is emerging as a critical challenge in rapidly developing regions where climate variability, population growth, and land-use change converge. Conventional indices largely emphasize hydrological supply or climatic drought but often neglect urban expansion, ecological resilience, and human exposure. To address this gap, we develop a Dynamic Urban\u0026ndash;Ecosystem Water Stress Index (UEWSI) and apply it to Hunan Province, China (2000\u0026ndash;2023) to support integrated water resources assessment and management.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe framework combines net water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), potential evapotranspiration, and impervious surface growth, further refined by a flood susceptibility index to establish an Urban Water Stress Classification (UWSC). Overlaying UWSC with population density enables the identification of human\u0026ndash;water conflict hotspots, where hydrological stress and demographic concentration intersect, providing a spatial basis for prioritizing management interventions. Results indicate that water stress is primarily driven by increasing climatic demand (PET, r\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0.9), urban impervious expansion (r\u0026thinsp;\u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;0.86), and population density (r\u0026thinsp;\u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;0.85), while precipitation plays a weaker role. Eco-hydrological regime zoning through ET/PET clustering revealed stable, transitional, and stressed ecosystems, while analysis of impervious\u0026ndash;biodiversity linkages highlights ecological trade-offs relevant for urban water conservation planning. By integrating climatic, hydrological, urban, and ecological dimensions, this study advances socio-hydrological research and delivers a decision-support framework for diagnosing stress hotspots, anticipating regime shifts, and guiding sustainable urban water resources planning and governance.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Mapping Urban Water Stress and Human-Water Conflicts: A Climate-Ecosystem Framework for Sustainable Water Management","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-15 09:17:19","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7727904/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major revisions","date":"2025-11-05T11:07:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-10-02T14:20:41+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-02T13:50:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-30T01:24:20+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Water Resources Management","date":"2025-09-29T01:00:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"water-resources-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"warm","sideBox":"Learn more about [Water Resources Management](https://www.springer.com/journal/11269)","snPcode":"11269","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11269/3","title":"Water Resources Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8a5c8fcd-6c82-4f02-b5e5-8a0d5fc716b1","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 15th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-09T16:04:57+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7727904","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04354-9","journal":{"identity":"water-resources-management","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Water Resources Management"},"publishedOn":"2026-02-06 15:58:52","publishedOnDateReadable":"February 6th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-15 09:17:19","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11269-025-04354-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04354-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7727904","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7727904","identity":"rs-7727904","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}