Impact of Energy Disruptions on Agri-food Supply Chains

Impact of Energy Disruptions on Agri-food Supply Chains | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Impact of Energy Disruptions on Agri-food Supply Chains Xun REN, Chen Chen YONG This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9257972/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy supply shock, posing a serious threat to agriculture and food systems. However, the specific mechanisms for the damage to food security and rural livelihoods in developing countries have not been fully studied. Using the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) and the input-output data of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), we quantify the impact of such serious oil supply interruptions on the output, value-added, and employment multiplier of agricultural and food supply chains in India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. By breaking down the multiplier into direct, indirect, and induced channels, we find that the structural vulnerabilities of these developing countries are mainly driven by induced effects. The contraction of labor income and household consumption is the main reason for the contraction of total output, which shows that the main threat to food security is not only the shortage of real production but also the systematic collapse of household purchasing power. In addition, the transnational decomposition of downstream and upstream supply chain sectors reveals profound structural heterogeneity, emphasizing that the transmission of energy shocks will change with different upstream and downstream dependencies. In order to effectively mitigate these asymmetric shocks, crisis response strategies must go beyond traditional physical supply indicators. Policymakers should integrate food rights frameworks, active income stabilization measures, and diversified supply chains to guarantee human livelihoods and ensure fair access to food. Agricultural Economics & Policy Energy shock Hypothetical extraction method Agri-food supply chains Food security Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9257972","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":613991834,"identity":"f20522b7-3e0a-4b1f-a2a6-1aef20252ca8","order_by":0,"name":"Xun REN","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universiti Malaya","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xun","middleName":"","lastName":"REN","suffix":""},{"id":613991835,"identity":"8bd49e34-7fc2-4b02-9654-a0a7a21b09bf","order_by":1,"name":"Chen Chen YONG","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACGzApQYqWNNK1HCZBC3/7GcPHBb/OJ65tYD54m4dhW2IDIS0SZ3KMjWf23U7cdoAt2ZqH4TZhLQYSPGbSvD0gLUAGKVrOAbXwfyNBC8+PAyBb2IjTInEmrdiYtyHZeNthNmPLOQa3jQlq4W8/vPExzx872W3Hmx/eeFNxW5agFgYGDgMGxjYgzQx2J4MjEVrYHzAw/EFw7QnrGAWjYBSMgpEGAFyOPE+VhjtcAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1022-6615","institution":"Universiti Malaya","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chen","middleName":"Chen","lastName":"YONG","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-29 10:16:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9257972/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9257972/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105904521,"identity":"d820da4f-53b4-494b-8a11-fe4223a3f239","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-01 10:09:14","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":396747,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript4.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9257972/v1_covered_75142db4-9332-421d-b983-883678a3290d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImpact of Energy Disruptions on Agri-food Supply Chains\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"University of Malaya","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy shock, Hypothetical extraction method, Agri-food supply chains, Food security","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9257972/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9257972/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy supply shock, posing a serious threat to agriculture and food systems. 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In addition, the transnational decomposition of downstream and upstream supply chain sectors reveals profound structural heterogeneity, emphasizing that the transmission of energy shocks will change with different upstream and downstream dependencies. In order to effectively mitigate these asymmetric shocks, crisis response strategies must go beyond traditional physical supply indicators. 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