Study of Epidemiological Characteristics and In-silico Analysis of the Effect of Interventions in the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in India

After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the disease in the country. This study involves assessing how the disease affected the population in the initial days of the epidemic. Data was collected from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites and analyzed. Studying age and sex parameters of 413 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age of the affected individuals was found to be 36 years (IQR, 25-54) with 20-39 years males being the most affected group. The number of affected males (66.34%) was more than that of the females (33.66%). Using Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, the range of contact rate (β) of India was calculated and the role of public health interventions was assessed. If current contact rate continues, India may have 5583 to 13785 active cases at the end of 21 days lockdown. Article Summary Line The study gives the epidemiological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India, where unlike other countries, the 20-39 years males are most affected, and the SIR model predicts the probable number of cases of COVID-19 by the end of the 21 days lockdown in the country, which will help to develop appropriate public health interventions to control the COVID-19 epidemic.