The role of the information content of the Moroccan treasury securities real yield curve in forecasting the future economic situation in Morocco

The role of the information content of the Moroccan treasury securities real yield curve in forecasting the future economic situation in Morocco | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The role of the information content of the Moroccan treasury securities real yield curve in forecasting the future economic situation in Morocco Mohammed Hassan ALAOUI, Outmane Noufail SOUSSI This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4014167/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study aims to investigate the role of the slope of the real interest rate curve of Treasury bills in predicting the future economic situation in Morocco. Economic theory suggests that the slope of rates can be explained by three factors: the effects of monetary policy, expectations of monetary policy, and the intertemporal smoothing of consumption. Our theoretical model focuses on the latter explanation, suggesting that households aim to maintain a constant level of consumption, regardless of fluctuations in interest rates and the economic situation. To examine this relationship, we constructed a regression model that includes several lagged financial and/or monetary explanatory variables, such as real interest rates. This analysis utilizes quarterly data from 2007 to 2020. Our results underscore the importance of the information embedded in the structure of real interest rates, particularly the spread of real interest rates, for analyzing and forecasting future economic growth in Morocco. Moroccan yield curve spread economic forecast Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4014167","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":278675403,"identity":"9c32322b-bcc0-44b0-8df7-3bbaaa12e597","order_by":0,"name":"Mohammed Hassan ALAOUI","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAxiDD0QkVDAw2DcQq4UNrOUMkghxWhjbiNBizn788YefOxjk2dgPH5N4OO9wtLn0AcYPPxi2yePSYtmTYybZe4bBsI0nLU0icdvh3J19CcySPQy3DXH5yeBADhsDbxvISTlmYC0NQP9IMzDcZsSp5fzzxx//tjHYt/G/AWqZA9bC/BuoBWfIGdxIMJAG2pLYJgGypeFw7oYzDGwgWxJxa3ljJi3bJpHcJvEs2SLhWHruzB7GNsseg9vJuB2W/vjj2zYb237+5IM3f9RY5/bzMB++8aPiti0uLVAggcwBeZxg7IyCUTAKRsEowAcA6tFWgRTTIicAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Mohammed V University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammed","middleName":"Hassan","lastName":"ALAOUI","suffix":""},{"id":278675404,"identity":"c516fc3f-449b-432b-8d13-277472e575cd","order_by":1,"name":"Outmane Noufail SOUSSI","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mohammed V University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Outmane","middleName":"Noufail","lastName":"SOUSSI","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-04 19:15:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4014167/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4014167/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":52755715,"identity":"ad2122e5-07e6-4a9e-af28-29ee9660047b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-15 11:35:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":280430,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"latexformTheroleoftheinformationcontentoftheMoroccantreasurysecurities.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4014167/v1_covered_be485e1e-da05-4338-9bea-0ffbb81c4ea4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The role of the information content of the Moroccan treasury securities real yield curve in forecasting the future economic situation in Morocco","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Moroccan yield curve, spread, economic forecast","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4014167/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4014167/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"This study aims to investigate the role of the slope of the real interest rate curve of Treasury bills in predicting the future economic situation in Morocco. 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